Breakout or Fakeout: Week 8

Each week, there are unexpected performances across the NFL that leave fantasy gamers puzzled. In 2023, for example, you may have asked yourself the following:

• Is Puka Nacua’s 14-target performance in Week 1 a fluke or a sign of things to come? (Answer: He’s legit)
• Should I chase Will Levis after a dazzling 4-TD performance in his debut in Week 8? (Answer: No)
• De’Von Achane had 51 points in Week 3…after being a healthy scratch in Week 1? What the hell do I do with that information? (Answer: Buy Achane in all your leagues!)

The goal of this article is to help you separate the signal from the noise for the most perplexing breakout fantasy performances from the prior week. Each week, I will cover ~3-5 situations in depth through both a statistical and film-based lens to help you answer pressing questions related to waivers, trades, start-sit decisions, or DFS lineup decisions. Let’s get into it:

Kyle Pitts | Keon Coleman

Kyle Pitts breaks the 20+ PPR Barrier for the First Time in 44 Games

Kyle Pitts loyalists finally have their moment. For the first time in over three years (Week 7, 2021), Pitts eclipsed 20+ PPR points in a game with four catches for 91 yards and two TDs vs. the Buccaneers. Is the long-awaited breakout for Pitts finally here? Or should we consider selling at a high point of a very up-and-down season for the former fourth overall pick in the NFL Draft?

In terms of pure fantasy scoring, Pitts now ranks fifth among TEs in PPR points per game at 11.1. Pitts hasn’t massively separated from the pack, however, with TE5-11 all tightly clustered together. Pitts, Travis Kelce, Tucker Kraft, Cole Kmet, Cade Otton, Evan Engram, and Jake Ferguson are all within 0.5 points per game of each other.

In Pitts’ underlying statistics, there are both positive and negative indicators. On the positive side, Pitts has been very efficient on a per-target basis. Of 38 TEs that have run at least 100 routes (about ~3-4 games’ worth of routes), Pitts ranks eighth in yards per target (YPT) with 10.2. Another way to frame this is that every time the Falcons target Pitts, they get, on average, 10.2 yards, which is enough for a first down on every play. Even by WR standards, 10.2 YPT is a very strong number.