The Week 7 main slate was a really interesting one because it was extremely wide open due to an improvement in pricing across the board. There were very few slam-dunk plays and it was difficult to build lineups that felt great, especially at quarterback. Let’s walk through the discussion points, one big pre-lock surprise, and then look at some results.
Quarterback
I cannot recall a 12+ game slate in college football DFS where the quarterback pool was such a challenge. I waffled back and forth all week, but the three names consistently in the conversation for me were Max Johnson, Emory Jones, and Jalen Milroe. Johnson was more of a price play and Jones/Milroe at least had outs to produce with their legs, and both were home favorites. Jordan Travis seemed okay, but he was priced at $9,000 and I thought he was not worth the premium over the other names. I did think Bo Nix was the clear top quarterback on the slate in terms of raw expectation, and I preferred him over Michael Penix, but the price point of $10,000 seemed like a challenge as I preferred trying to get up to a higher-priced wide receiver than pay at the position.
Saturday morning I had Max Johnson and Emory Jones as my two cash-game quarterbacks (with Troy Franklin at SFLEX) and it was not something I was thrilled about. However, a couple of hours before lock, we learned that TreVeyon Henderson was questionable, which threw a wrench into the slate. Once Henderson was finally ruled out around 30 minutes prior to lock, I decided to prioritize Chip Trayanum at running back, which gave me more salary cap to play with. I ended up moving Max Johnson to Bo Nix, which seemed like the prudent thing to do considering what I perceived to be a high floor/ceiling spot.
Running Back
I thought the running back position was fairly deep with upwards of 8-10 guys in play, however, I had a pretty clear top two favorites, which made decisions at the position fairly straightforward for me. I thought Ollie Gordon was the clear best play of the slate, as his volume has been absurd and he had a favorable home matchup versus Kansas. Beyond that, Bucky Irving was also a priority for me in a spot where I thought Oregon could be involved in a shootout and Noah Whittington (Oregon’s RB2) was out. I thought that news moved him from a 13-15 touch floor to 18-20, which is massive for someone as explosive as Bucky.
After the two priority guys, I thought Kaden Feagin (if Reggie Love was out), Dillon Johnson, Devin Neal, and Jaylon Glover (if Ja’Quindan Jackson was out) were all really solid. However, wide receiver featured some of the best value on the slate, so I was certainly open to playing only two running backs. As we got closer to Saturday, I kind of trimmed this list down to just Feagin and Dillon Johnson, as I had some concern that Neal would continue to lose work to Daniel Hishaw, and the Utah running back spot always weirds me out (and it sounded like Jackson could play).
As I talked about earlier, on Saturday morning once we got news that Miyan Williams and Henderson were both out for Ohio State, I thought Chip Trayanum was someone you needed to play in cash. That made that part of the lineup decision easier as Gordon, Irving, and Trayanum were the running backs I was going to play.
Wide Receiver
Ainias Smith, Isaiah Williams, Rashod Owens, Jaden Bray, and Jaylin Noel all provided a decent source of stable salary relief at the position. I thought Smith was the best of the bunch in a game where I expected Texas A&M would have to throw a ton of passes. Williams was solid, but I was also considering Illinois RB Feagin and I definitely did not want to play both of them together as road dogs with a team total under 20. Owens and Bray were interesting because I thought Bray was a bit better straight up, however, they were priced $1,400 differently on DraftKings, so, to me, it made a ton of sense to play the $3,500 Owens even if you had some concern that his role was a little bit shaky. Noel was the last of the bunch, so he did not quite make the final cut.
In terms of the higher-priced guys, Brock Bowers was a great play on the surface, as was Oregon stud Troy Franklin. I had a slight preference for Bowers in a vacuum at $700 savings, but I would have played Franklin over him straight up. I liked the price tag on Jalen McMillan, but I always have some concerns playing a guy coming back after missing multiple games with an undisclosed injury. Also, I had much more confidence that Oregon’s pass game would flow through Franklin, as Washington has a deeper group of wide receivers, which made me less confident in a specific play.
In terms of lineup construction, playing the cheapest guy in Owens and then Ainias Smith and Williams made the most sense once I had Chip locked in as my third running back. If I had played Bowers or Franklin over the Isaiah Williams spot, it put me in an odd $7K range for quarterbacks. The floor of Bo Nix was appealing on this slate while taking advantage of the best value at the WR position.
Late Swap Considerations
After Chip Trayanum got concussed in the first quarter and then Emory Jones put up a dud, things were looking kind of bleak for my lineup. However, I took about 10 minutes before the late window locked to review various contests and what I saw was a ton of landmines across a large portion of lineups (Bowers got hurt too and he was highly owned). I decided to hold with my lineup and not make any swaps.
Results
I was pleased with my decision to not overreact and swap off my team after the first window of games went poorly, and the late window went mostly according to script, which propelled me to a comfortable cash.
Quarterback results were unsurprisingly weak, as chalk pieces Emory Jones and Max Johnson both failed to get 14 fantasy points. The expensive duo of Bo Nix and Michael Penix were both fine at 27 and 31 fantasy points, actually providing a nice amount of raw points considering there was so much cheap value on the slate. The mid-range guys in Milroe and Jordan Travis were fine but did not separate at all. In retrospect, I probably should have considered cheaper options like Luke Altmyer ($6,200) and Rocco Becht ($5,300) a bit more, but the issue was my level of comfort with the value of the RB/WR spots. The correct approach was to prioritize the best plays at WR and RB and then just make quarterback work with whatever was remaining.
The Trayanum concussion was unfortunate, as he was well on his way to having a solid game at his price tag, but at least the other priority running backs separated a bit. Ollie Gordon broke the slate with a 52 spot, so he definitely ended up being a necessity. Bucky Irving had 20+ touches and broke 30 fantasy points, so I felt good about prioritizing him as the RB/WR spend-up option (over someone like Bowers, who admittedly ran bad with the injury). Those who chased the Devin Neal ceiling certainly did not get there, as Jason Bean flipped the script from last week and decided all of the touchdowns were flowing through him this week. Dillon Johnson was really solid (20 rushes and two targets), and if the Trayanum news had not popped up, I really think the correct approach would have been to play Gordon, Bucky, and Dillon (I am not sure I would have gotten there though).
Rashod Owens was great, but Isaiah Williams got bailed out with a touchdown and Ainias Smith was very much not involved (only two targets despite playing the whole game). I probably did not give Tennessee’s defense enough credit, as they made life miserable for Max Johnson. The frustrating part is this Texas A&M offense continues to underperform and fails to adapt within the game. They were getting pressured all game and refused to use Ainias over the middle or in the screen game. Luckily I survived the play, as he was extremely high-owned, but I think I was too overconfident in his role (especially with Evan Stewart getting fully healthy and Noah Thomas returning).
Despite the frustrations on a few spots for this slate, I will certainly take the results and move on to next week. Thanks for reading!
Season Results in Single-Entry $5 Double-Up (1,149 entries):
Week 0: 87th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 1: 12th-percentile lineup (L)
Week 2: 49th-percentile lineup (L)
Week 3: 33rd-percentile lineup (L)
Week 4: 92nd-percentile lineup (W)
Week 5: 42nd-percentile lineup (L)
Week 6: 64th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 7: 77th-percentile lineup (W)
