We have four games for each team in the books now, which means it’s time to take a look at NFL awards markets. We’ll start with some value options, before providing notes for the MVP market. Ryan Reynolds will join Adam Levitan and Gary Hartman this Thursday to discuss the Comeback Player and Coach of the Year markets, among other options.
MVP: Brock Purdy (+1600 to +2200 DraftKings)
Say what you will about Purdy, but he currently leads the league in rating and QBR for the undefeated 49ers. Those two stats, along with team success and touchdowns, are the four most important factors for MVP winners over the last 10 years. Touchdowns are the area Purdy needs to make up some ground in. Despite the 49ers scoring at least 30 points in every game they’ve played, Purdy only has five passing touchdowns on the year, which is six off the lead. Purdy gets an isolated night game against Dallas this Sunday, which is more likely to be a defensive contest than a shootout.
OROY: Bijan Robinson (+275 to +450 DraftKings)
C.J. Stroud’s (+175) rise has led to Robinson’s OPOY odds dipping to a price that was close to his +500 opening. If Cooper Kupp returns soon and doesn’t suffer an injury setback, Puka Nacua (+450) will likely see a significant decrease in volume. Robinson is currently tied for third in the league in rushing yards to go with 22 targets. The Falcons’ quarterback situation is a genuine problem, but Robinson has a very real chance of finishing the year with a top-five running back season.
DROY: Devon Witherspoon (+150 to +340 FanDuel)
Jalen Carter (-110) is already a premium defensive tackle and one of the league’s true difference-makers on the interior. Witherspoon had a monster game in primetime that pushed him way up in this race. That outing against the Giants could very well be the peak for Witherspoon this season and in this race. That said, he and Texans Edge Will Anderson (+900) have the best shot of catching Carter.
DPOY: Nick Bosa (+2000 to +2500 DraftKings) and Aidan Hutchinson (+2500 to +3000 PointsBet)
Bosa only has one sack on the season, but that could change in a hurry. Being able to get the defending DPOY, that plays for the undefeated 49ers, at +2500 is an extreme value. Hutchinson is the face of the Lions’ defense, who has not only impressed but largely driven Detroit to their 3-1 start. If you notice at the end of isolated night games that the Lions win, Hutchinson tends to get interviewed after the game. For defensive awards, household names tend to win most of them. I would have both Bosa and Hutchinson priced at roughly +1000 odds in this race if I were an oddsmaker.
MVP Market Notes
Josh Allen (+400) is in the driver’s seat in this race to the point it wouldn’t be a major surprise if this is the best price you can get him at going forward. However, a London trip to face Trevor Lawrence’s (+2500) Jaguars is a sneaky losable game for Buffalo. After that, Allen’s Bills likely eviscerate the Giants on Sunday Night Football. If you think the Bills are going to beat the Jaguars in London, you can get Allen at a slight value at +400 on Caesars and PointsBet. If Buffalo wins both of those nationally televised games, Allen could enter Week 7 as a near-even-money MVP favorite.
The Chiefs’ offense has been largely underwhelming this season, but it would be foolish to count out two-time MVP winner Patrick Mahomes (+500).
There’s no shame in losing to the Bills in Buffalo, but ultimately the MVP is won by quarterbacks that finish the year on the No. 1 seed in their respective conference. Matt Ryan is the only quarterback over the last 10 years to win the MVP without being on the best team in the conference, as his Falcons were the No. 2 seed. If Tua Tagovailoa’s (+500) Dolphins don’t win their division, Miami is capped out as the fifth seed.
Jalen Hurts (+700) has another game against a below-average defense before the Eagles’ schedule ramps up in difficulty.
Lamar Jackson (+1000) is a dynamic athlete who’s capable of carrying any offense to relevancy. That said, he’s thrown for 794 yards in four games. Until Jackson actually carries this team through the air with any consistency, let’s please stop treating him as a Mahomes- or Allen-level passer.
Justin Herbert (+1800) can be productive enough to win the MVP, but team success is far more of a question mark for his Chargers than any other quarterback mentioned on this list.
