GM: Eric DeCosta
HC: John Harbaugh
OC: Todd Monken
DC: Zach Orr
Starting Offensive Lineup
QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Derrick Henry
WR1: Zay Flowers
WR2: Rashod Bateman
SLWR: Nelson Agholor
TE: Mark Andrews
LT: Ronnie Stanley
LG: Andrew Vorhees
C: Tyler Linderbaum
RG: Ben Cleveland
RT: Roger Rosengarten
Passing Game Outlook
Lamar Jackson comes off his second MVP campaign entering Year 2 under OC Todd Monken, whose 2023 offense granted Jackson pre-snap control that helped translate to career bests in completion rate (67%) and yards per pass attempt (8.0). Jackson wasn’t a fantasy difference-maker for most of the season because his Weeks 1-15 passing TD Rate was a lowly 4.2%. (His Weeks 16-17 TD Rate spiked to 12.5%.) Jackson still topped 50 rushing yards per game for the fifth straight year and dropped nearly 20 pounds this offseason in an effort to regain quickness and long speed. The sky is the limit for Jackson in his second stab at Monken’s system with Mark Andrews back healthy and a year under his belt with 2023 first-rounder Zay Flowers.
Mark Andrews missed eight 2023 games due to a preseason quad strain and late-season fibula fracture. Over nine appearances in between, Andrews averaged 4.8/57.9/0.7 receiving with an exceptional 73% catch rate. Across Andrews’ last 17 games played, his receiving line is 76/903/6. While 29-year-old Andrews remains worth betting on in his athletic prime, it’s notable that positional competitors Travis Kelce (106/1,065/5), George Kittle (69/1,049/8), Sam LaPorta (86/889/10), T.J. Hockenson (103/1,035/5), and David Njoku (85/924/7) have all outscored Andrews over their own last 17 appearances.
Zay Flowers flashed dynamic playmaking ability over his final seven 2023 appearances including playoffs, turning an average of 4.7 catches into 56.7 yards and six all-purpose TDs. Last year’s No. 22 overall pick, Flowers enters his sophomore campaign as Baltimore’s virtually uncontested No. 1 wide receiver. A poor man’s Tyreek Hill with speed-cut route running and contested-catch ability, Flowers offers legit WR1 fantasy upside in Year 2.
Rashod Bateman landed a two-year, $13 million extension from Baltimore this April, even after he cleared 50 receiving yards in 1-of-18 games (including playoffs). 2021’s 27th overall pick, Bateman obviously maintains some level of approval within the Ravens’ organization. Bateman nevertheless profiles as Baltimore’s clear-cut No. 3 receiving option behind Andrews and Flowers and could feel push from fourth-round rookie Devontez Walker, a freaky athlete who stretched the field vertically at both Kent State and North Carolina.
Nelson Agholor re-upped with Baltimore on a one-year, $3.75 million deal that is fully guaranteed, all but affirming Agholor’s 53-man roster security. While a serviceable sub-package player, Agholor has fallen below 475 receiving yards in four of the last five seasons. The journeyman has settled in as a more useful real-life than fantasy receiver.
Isaiah Likely has seen five or more targets in eight career games. In them, he’s averaged 4.5/56.5/0.6 receiving. Box-score expectations for Likely should remain low barring another injury to Andrews, but Likely would become a lock TE1 should Andrews again miss time.
Running Game Outlook
Derrick Henry signed a two-year, $16 million deal with Baltimore that guarantees him $9 million. Even in his age-29 season, Henry remained dominant as a 2023 rusher by turning 252 carries into 1,116 yards and 12 TDs (4.4 YPC) against non-Texans defenses. (Houston held Henry to 28/51/0 rushing in their two dates. This year’s Ravens face the Texans once, on Christmas Day.) Lightly-used role player Justice Hill and explosive second-year change-up Keaton Mitchell pose the biggest challenges to Henry’s workload. Henry’s touchdown ceiling remains sky high as the virtually unchallenged lead back in what projects as a high-scoring offense that should lean heavily on Henry in short-yardage and goal-line situations.
Keaton Mitchell injected energy into Baltimore’s 2023 running game as soon as he began earning work last Week 7, through Week 15 logging a 47/396/2 (8.4 YPC) rushing line before tearing his left ACL on Dec. 17. An undrafted rookie, Mitchell was deployed almost solely as a rusher, whereas more-pedestrian Justice Hill logged meaningful passing-down snaps. Mitchell’s 2024 outlook hinges heavily on his health and potential role expansion.
2024 Win Total
Sharp Football Analysis rated Baltimore’s schedule as 2024’s fourth toughest, while talent-maximizing DC Mike Macdonald’s exit for Seattle should further rein in expectations. The Ravens are making too many gambles on the offensive line for comfort. Inside the division, the Bengals are a lock to improve, while the Browns and Steelers both profile as playoff contenders. At +115 odds, I bet on Baltimore to finish below 10.5 victories this season.
