Dynasty Outlook
April 16
Brock Bowers is our TE1 for rookie drafts and checks in as TE2 in our overall dynasty ranks. While this is a lofty bar to clear for a player not yet in the league, Bowers is absolutely worth it. He has all-world comps based on the numbers, and the scouts hold him in extremely high esteem. Three-year TEs are typically great investments, and Bowers clears every bar we would want in a prospect outside of tested athleticism. He will be a premium dynasty asset.
Profile Summary
Bowers may be the best TE prospect we have ever seen. While he may be thought of as simply a “pass catcher”, the scouts liken him to elite two-way TE George Kittle, and it is worth noting that his run-blocking grades have been solid on PFF. Given his injury recovery, we will not get to see just how athletic he is, but it is possible his insane YAC numbers are enough to tell that he is an elite athlete. Bowers should be a prominent target immediately in an NFL offense.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 21.1
Experience — 3 years
Height — 75.125 inches
Weight — 243 pounds
Hand — 9.75 inches
Arm — 32.75 inches
By the Numbers
Bowers burst on the scene immediately as a true freshman, leading Georgia in receptions, receiving yards, and total TDs while playing with the following NFL talents:
Jermaine Burton
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
James Cook
Darnell Washington
George Pickens
Zamir White
Kenny McIntosh
This is no small feat. Bowers was frequently designed touches within the offense — including rushing. He carried the ball 19 times for 193 yards and five scores in his career.
Bowers is a YAC king. He led all TEs in YAC for all three years he was in school. This may seem trivial, but YAC may be a secret skeleton key to scouting the position. Here are all drafted TEs with at least 350 yards of YAC in a single season since 2015:
Jonnu Smith
Evan Engram
Gerald Everett
Hayden Hurst
David Njoku
Chris Herndon
T.J. Hockenson
Irv Smith Jr.
Jace Sternberger
Harrison Bryant
Caleb Wilson
Brycen Hopkins
Isaiah Likely
Trey McBride
Sam LaPorta
Dalton Kincaid
It isn’t a perfect metric, but there are many TEs of consequence on this list. Bowers did it three times.
Unfortunately, we do not have any athletic testing for Bowers as he recovers from tightrope surgery. As Josh Norris points out, that is a significant data point for us to be missing.
RAS is not a perfect composite score for athleticism
and Pro Bowl appearances is not a perfect depiction of talent
But with Tight Ends working out tonight, I want to stress how important athleticism is to the position to become one of the “elites”
👀👀 green vs yellow vs red pic.twitter.com/DeTPeyjQo7
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) March 1, 2024
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compared Bowers to George Kittle:
Prolific pass-catching tight end with a rare blend of acceleration, speed, body control, and hands that could breathe new life into a stale NFL offense. Bowers was a high-volume target at Georgia and led the team in receiving yards in all three of his college seasons. He plays with relentless pacing as a route runner, allowing him to beat man coverage. Also, he’s highly effective at exploiting zone pockets for first downs and chunk plays. Bowers’ secret sauce might be his ability to rip through tacklers and pile on yardage after the catch. He’ll be an adequate move blocker and give effort at the point of attack, but that is the one area where his game falls short of George Kittle’s, for comparison purposes. Bowers is an explosive athlete but lacks the premium measurables typically associated with early first-rounders. It might take a year for him to acclimate to defenders who are bigger, faster, and longer, but he appears destined to become a highly productive NFL player with Pro Bowl upside.
Daniel Jeremiah also brought up the Kittle comp for Bowers:
Bowers is an undersized tight end with elite speed, strength, and playmaking ability. He lined up all over the field at Georgia — in-line, on the wing, split out, and even at running back. He is very sudden in his release, and he uses his upper-body strength to chuck defenders when pressed at the line of scrimmage. He catches a lot of quick hitters in the flat and he’s a maniac on screens. He attacks the ball in the air and is quick to transition up the field. He has the speed to pull away, but his greatest asset is his tackle-breaking power. He runs through contact without gearing down. He is an effective run blocker when he can get his hands on opponents, but he will get pressed out by longer-armed edge rushers. Overall, Bowers reminds me a lot of George Kittle, and I see him having a similar impact in the NFL.
Dane Brugler describes Bowers as an “offensive weapon”:
With both short-area burst and long speed, Bowers makes quick, dynamic speed cuts to create spacing as a route runner — and he hits another gear as a home-run threat with the ball in his hands. He is a natural hands catcher outside his frame and snatches without breaking stride.
His physicality is almost as impressive as his athletic traits, although his lack of ideal size and length will show with some in-line blocking situations.
Bowers is more of an offensive weapon than a traditional tight end.
Draft Projection
Bowers has an expected draft position of 10.9 at Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Bowers 10th overall. Jeremiah’s most recent mock had Bowers going 12th, while Mel Kiper’s had him 10th. Bowers appears likely to come off the board in the middle of Round 1.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Put simply: The Bowers comps are insane. Sam LaPorta just had a monster rookie season, finishing as the TE3. Evan Engram has five seasons of double-digit PPR points per game, and just eclipsed 100 receptions for Jacksonville. Kyle Pitts went over 1,000 yards as a rookie. Vernon Davis was an elite fantasy TE with the Niners. T.J. Hockenson has four seasons of 11+ PPR points per game, and was the TE2 last year. David Njoku is on his second contract, and was just the TE6. Eric Ebron had a 14.0 PPG season for the Colts.
Even Noah Fant, who has been mostly a bust, has shown some promise now on a second contract with the Seahawks. We will see what Michael Mayer is able to do in his career after being a second-round pick. Overall, this is the most impressive list of TE comps we have had.
