CFB DFS Top Plays: Week 1 (Thursday)

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

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Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. These are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.”

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

QUARTERBACK

CJ Bailey (NCST – DK $9,500, FD $9,800) – N.C. State checks in with a massive 37-point team total and Bailey, who showed some improvement over the course of last season, profiles as the de facto QB1 on the DraftKings slate given the lack of appealing options. UCF is in a great spot, but Cam Fancher is likely to have a really short leash after winning a very close three-way QB battle, so his downside is immense. Bailey is a willing runner, posting 279 yards and five scores on the ground last season (he averaged almost 50 rushing yards per game over his last four games). Generally, this is a rough quarterback slate, and Bailey provides some level of floor that most options on this slate do not possess. Running back is so strong (and N.C. State pass catchers are priced up) that we do think you can play Bailey without a receiver on this slate. Recommended Stacking in GPPs: 0-2 WRs