DFS Top Plays: Week 13

 

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated once on Sunday morning, if necessary.

DFS Optimizer? We do not have an optimizer, but we have a promotional deal with FantasyLabs. For $30 per month, you will gain access to their optimizer and it will come pre-loaded with both ETR projections and Adam Levitan’s ownership projections. Click here for details.

 

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context and positional depth is accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership or game stacks or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

For more tournament content, check out our projections and Saturday’s Establish The Million show with Drew Dinkmeyer and Mike Leone. 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: Median projection, matchup, upside and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.”

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for. 

 

QUARTERBACK
Lamar Jackson ($7800 DK, $8500 FD) — Certainly not an easy spot at division rival Pittsburgh. But Lamar’s supporting cast and massive rushing floor plays well anywhere. Note that there are no slam dunks at QB on DraftKings this week, but Lamar and Tom Brady do stick out on FanDuel. 

Tom Brady ($7200 DK, $8100 FD) — Brady failed last week, but the four rushing TDs were really fluky. His price came down $400 on DK. This Bucs team is still top-3 in pass rate over expectation since Week 7 and in the red zone. Now comes a dome game in Atlanta and the Bucs have the highest team total on the slate.  

Taylor Heinicke ($5600 DK, $7100 FD) — Our preferred punt at quarterback this week. Heinicke has a sneaky rushing ceiling and an excellent spot at Vegas. No JD McKissic hurts, but Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel are getting closer to 100%. 

 

RUNNING BACK
Jonathan Taylor ($9200 DK, $10500 FD) — The NFL’s best running back has added a pass-catching role and has his offensive line playing at elite levels. The Texans are 30th in touchdowns allowed per game. 

Alexander Mattison ($7600 DK, $8700 FD) — The sites did a good job of pricing Mattison up, but we could argue his role is even better than Dalvin Cook’s. With Ameer Abdullah gone, only Kene Nwangwu is behind Mattison against the Lions. 

Elijah Mitchell ($6000 DK, $7600 FD) — Kyle Shanahan is in love. Mitchell has a lock on early-down work and even flashed a pass-catching role last week with six targets. The 49ers are one of the NFL’s most run-heavy teams now and Mitchell is the focal point. 

Antonio Gibson ($5700 DK, $6200 FD) — Gibson would have been in play even if JD McKissic (out, concussion) was healthy. But with McKissic out, Gibson’s pass-catching role has a real ceiling. We don’t expect Wendell Smallwood or Jaret Patterson to play very much, and Gibson was a wideout in college.  

**Sony Michel ($4300 DK, $5300 FD) IF DARRELL HENDERSON IS OUT — Henderson (quad) is questionable after going DNP, DNP, LP in practice this week. If he’s inactive, Michel will immediately become one of the best plays on the slate at near-minimum prices against the Jags. 

 

WIDE RECEIVER
Cooper Kupp ($9000 DK, $9000 FD) — Kupp’s return to the main slate is greeted by a matchup with the Jags. Kupp has seen an absurd 11.4 targets per game this season with a sustainable 73% catch rate. We have no reason to think he’ll slow down here. 

Diontae Johnson ($6800 DK, $7200 FD) — A stone lock for volume. Big Ben is incapable of doing anything other than peppering Johnson with short targets, which defenses are OK with. He’s seen 10+ targets in 19 of his 26 games over the last two seasons. 

Chris Godwin ($6600 DK, $7600 FD) — Last week’s fluky dud is sure to give some of our opponents pause. But nothing has changed on Godwin, who has absolutely shredded the Falcons in his career. 

Brandon Aiyuk ($5600 DK) — We are priced out a bit on FanDuel, where Aiyuk is up at $7000. But on DraftKings, the full-PPR format benefits Aiyuk as he’ll take some of the short-area work with Deebo Samuel (groin) out.  

 

TIGHT END
George Kittle ($5900 DK, $6300 FD) — Very appetizing price on DraftKings, particularly with Deebo Samuel (groin) out. The question with Kittle is always volume, but the 49ers are starting Jauan Jennings and Trent Sherfield in 3-WR sets now.

Rob Gronkowski ($5300 DK, $7000 FD) — A bit expensive on FanDuel where he’s $700 more than George Kittle and $800 more than Kyle Pitts. But Gronk leads all NFL tight ends in targets per route run and is looking as healthy as ever.

Foster Moreau ($2700 DK, $5000 FD) — Darren Waller (knee) went down on Thanksgiving and the sites blew it on pricing The Island of Moreau. When Waller missed Week 7, Moreau had truly elite usage and finished with 6-60-1.

 

DEFENSE
Rams ($4900 FD) — Tough to fit the Rams at $4000 on DK. But on FanDuel, this is a pretty cheap chance to tee off on the mistake-prone Jags.

Dolphins ($3300 DK, $4000 FD) — An ascending, blitz-happy defense gets Mike Glennon and the Giants No. 28 offensive line.

Raiders ($2800 DK) — The pickings are slim for punt D/ST options on DraftKings. Things like WAS, HOU, and NYJ are acceptable, but low floor/ceiling. The Raiders up at $2800 at least have elite pass rushers.