DFS Top Plays: Week 9

 

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 619 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

For more tournament content, check out our projections, Gary Hartman’s GPP Leverage Article, and Saturday’s Establish The Million show with Mike Leone, Adam Levitan, and Gary Hartman.

 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

 

QUARTERBACK

Lamar Jackson ($8,200 DK, $8,600 FD) – Jackson has been red-hot over the past month and now plays a Seattle defense that has been more beatable through the air rather than on the ground.

Jalen Hurts ($8,000 DK, $9,000 FD) – The Dallas defense is tough, but this game has the highest total on the main slate and the Hurts to A.J. Brown connection has been absolutely lethal this season. Hurts also boasts immense rushing upside as usual.

Daniel Jones ($5,600 DK, $7,000 FD) – Jones carries some risk in his first game back from a neck injury, but his rushing upside is hard to beat at this price point, and the Raiders’ defense is beatable. Darren Waller‘s absence hurts, but we expect Jones to have a fairly normal rushing workload in Week 9.

 

RUNNING BACK

Alvin Kamara ($8,100 DK, $9,200 FD) – Kamara faces a Bears defense that has allowed the most receiving yards in the league to opposing running backs – and the next-closest team is more than 100 yards lower. He should rack up plenty of easy receptions, plus he has a decent chance to hit paydirt too since the Saints should score a good amount of points.

Josh Jacobs ($6,900 DK, $7,500 FD) – Jacobs had a 22% target share earlier this season with Aidan O’Connell at the helm, and he should be peppered with touches both as a runner and receiver in the rookie’s second start.

Bijan Robinson ($6,100 DK, $7,100 FD) – With Drake London out, Robinson will have to take on an even larger role as a pass-catcher. He also out-carried Tyler Allgeier 11-8 in his first game after the weird headache saga.

Devin Singletary ($4,300 DK, $5,300 FD) – With Dameon Pierce out, Singletary should be a workhorse for the Texans. Mike Boone may steal some passing-down snaps, but he has just three carries all season. Singletary has 20-touch upside with Pierce injured.

 

WIDE RECEIVER

A.J. Brown ($8,600 DK, $9,000 FD) – Brown has posted at least 125 yards in six straight games and remains unchallenged as the alpha WR in this Eagles’ aerial attack. It’s a harder matchup than last week, but Brown is a tough guy to bet against right now.

Adam Thielen ($7,500 DK, $8,300 FD) – Thielen has posted at least a 30% target share in three consecutive games. He has as voluminous of a role as any wideout in the league right now and has shown no signs of slowing down in his age-33 season.

Chris Olave ($6,300 DK, $6,900 FD) – Olave had a 31% target share and 170 air yards in Week 8. The volume was there; it just didn’t translate into fantasy points. Playing the Bears’ defense is as good of a get-right spot as you can get, and Olave should have better luck in Week 9.

Terry McLaurin ($5,600 DK, $7,200 FD) – The Commanders have the second-highest Pass Rate Over Expectation in football and just traded away two of their best players on what was already an awful defense. Washington will be slinging the rock, and McLaurin should have a mid-20s target share, especially with Curtis Samuel out.

Demario Douglas ($4,000 DK, $5,400 FD) – Kendrick Bourne is done for the year. DeVante Parker looks unlikely. That means Douglas’ competition at WR is JuJu Smith-Schuster (who didn’t play a snap until Bourne got hurt last week), Jalen Reagor, Kayshon Boutte, and Tyquan Thornton. Douglas is going to get as many targets as he can handle.

 

TIGHT END

Dalton Schultz ($4,200 DK, $5,400 FD) – Schultz has quietly posted at least a 20% target share in three straight games and is in line for plenty of volume with Robert Woods out again.

David Njoku ($3,800 DK, $5,500 FD) – Njoku has finally gotten it going over the past two weeks with a 24% and 25% target share and now faces a soft Cardinals defense.

 

DEFENSE

Cleveland Browns ($4,200 DK) – Arguably the best defense in football against Clayton Tune making his first NFL start. Enough said.

New England Patriots ($2,900 DK) – Sam Howell is the most-sacked QB in football, and there will be plenty of sack and turnover opportunities against a pass-happy Commanders offense.

New York Giants ($2,300 DK) – Aidan O’Connell was sacked seven times in his first career start.