Episode Summary: 2026 ETR Mock Draft w/ Silva, Smith, Standig, & Renner (April 21, 2026)
The annual ETR Mock is back. Four mockers: Silva, Scott Smith (4for4), Ben Standig (Last Man Standig), and Mike Renner (CBS Sports). 32 picks, first round only, no trades in the interest of simplicity. Rule of the exercise is to pick what you think teams will do, not what they should do. Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at 1 is -20,000. Arvell Reese went from +300 to -250 at 2 in the last 10 days. Silva sends Jeremiyah Love top five to Tennessee. Renner swings on Ty Simpson to Pittsburgh at 21.
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Key Topics
• Full 32-pick first-round mock. Top of the board: Fernando Mendoza, Arvell Reese, David Bailey, Jeremiyah Love, Sonny Styles, Spencer Fano, Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, Rueben Bain Jr., Francis Mauigoa.
• Live market movers: Arvell Reese from +300 to -250 on pick 2, Jordyn Tyson from +700 to +150 to be the first WR off the board, and Ty Simpson going from “no way Round 1” to a reasonable favorite to hear his name called.
Takeaway #1 (1:45): Mendoza is -20,000 chalk at 1, and Reese went from +300 to -250 at 2 inside 10 days
• Mike Renner: Raiders at 1, Fernando Mendoza. Out to roughly -20,000 to be the No. 1 pick off the board.
• Adam Levitan: It’s been a wild ride at 2. Arvell Reese was +260 to +300 to be the No. 2 overall pick. Maybe seven or 10 days ago, David Bailey was the favorite. Now it’s pushed all the way to -250 or so on Reese. Most of the sharp books and markets have Reese as the heavy, heavy favorite. Still some people out there who think it’ll be Bailey.
• Ben Standig: Jets at 2, Arvell Reese. Framed it as the upside guy versus the guy who’s more productive in college, and took the upside play.
Takeaway #2 (4:50): Silva puts Jeremiyah Love in the top five to Tennessee to stack talent around Cam Ward
• Evan Silva: Love at 4 to the Titans. Putting as much talent as possible around Cam Ward. Silva thinks the Titans believe they can be competitive in Year 1. Love is really good in the passing game, explosive plays. Teams over the last five or six years have become obsessed with creating explosives, and Love brings that.
• Scott Smith: Pushed back on the report that Arizona is considering Love at 3. Doesn’t make sense to him.
• Adam Levitan: Agreed with Scott on the Love stuff. Report today had the Cardinals considering Jeremiyah Love at 3. Would shock me. Feels like a typical draft-week smokescreen. Maybe some team behind Arizona is in love with Love and wants to trade up, and Arizona floats him so that team gives up something to move up.
Takeaway #3 (25:47): Renner swings on Ty Simpson to the Steelers at 21
• Mike Renner: Ty Simpson to Pittsburgh. Steelers fans are going to hate him for it. Simpson’s a lot better prospect than Kenny Pickett, so get that name out of your head. This is the reason you hire Mike McCarthy: his track record in developing young quarterbacks. Pittsburgh isn’t backing into a top-five pick next year. They’re not going to be in any QB class, truthfully. Developmental tools, one year as a starter. And Pittsburgh’s not a Super Bowl team. Not even close. So why not take a swing?
• Ben Standig: Completely agrees. Doesn’t know how Pittsburgh is not thinking about this. The Mike Tomlin era fizzled because they just didn’t have a young quarterback, and they’re not going to land a top one picking where they pick.
• Adam Levitan: Reports on Simpson have been all over the board. Started with everybody saying no way he goes in Round 1. Now he’s a pretty big favorite, or at least a reasonable favorite, to go in Round 1.
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About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
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