San Francisco @ Philadelphia
Team Totals: 49ers 26.5, Eagles 23.5
Brock Purdy enters Week 13 on a tear over his last three games, having shredded the Jags, Bucs, and Seahawks consecutively for a 75% completion rate, 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and 10.4 yards per pass attempt. This is the healthiest San Francisco’s offense has been all season, and with their entire weaponry intact, the 49ers field arguably the NFL’s most matchup-proof offense. Purdy’s individual matchup still stands out most positively against a slow-footed Philly secondary allowing the league’s second-most fantasy quarterback points. Because the Eagles are stout against the run, they encourage pass-funnel situations for enemy offenses. I bet the over on Purdy’s passing yards prop at 254.5. … Christian McCaffrey’s draw is improved by the absence of MLB Zach Cunningham (hamstring) and the expected absence of DT Fletcher Cox (groin, questionable), both of whom failed to practice all week. Matchup-proof anyway, CMC has scored 16 touchdowns through 11 games and totaled 100+ yards from scrimmage in eight of them.
Purdy’s 2023 target distribution: Brandon Aiyuk 65; George Kittle 61; CMC 56; Deebo Samuel 49; Jauan Jennings 26. … Aiyuk leads the NFL in yards per target (13.8), Air Yards per target (14.8), and yards per reception (19.6), establishing himself as one of the NFL’s premier vertical weapons.
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