San Francisco @ Jacksonville
Team Totals: 49ers 24, Jaguars 21
Kyle Shanahan’s Niners return from Week 9’s bye with Deebo Samuel (shoulder) back near full strength. LT Trent Williams (ankle) and LG Aaron Banks (toe) remain in recovery mode. Even while national media has pinned San Francisco’s three-game losing streak on Brock Purdy, he averaged 8.7 yards per attempt in the same time frame. In Week 8’s pre-bye loss to Cincinnati, the Niners ranked No. 1 in the league in offensive success rate, averaging 8.0 yards per play. Week 10 foe Jacksonville has given up the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. I’m approaching this as a bounce-back spot for Purdy as a low-end QB1. … His legs fresh following last week’s open date, Christian McCaffrey encounters the Jags leading the NFL in both rushing yards (652) and all-purpose TDs (13). Jacksonville has played stout run defense — holding enemy backs to 3.4 yards per carry and two all-purpose TDs in eight games — yet McCaffrey has established himself as matchup-proof as an elite talent on elite workloads in an elite running scheme.
In five 2023 games where he’s logged above 70% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps, Deebo has netted full-PPR point totals of 11.3, 22.1, 25.1, 0.6, and 11.5. I’m treating Samuel as an upside WR2 at the Jags. … Still top two in the league in yards per route run (3.2), Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving line over his last 17 regular-season games is 81/1,233/7 (15.2 YPR).
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