Cleveland @ Houston
Team Totals: Browns 21.5, Texans 19.5
The Browns have transitioned to a pass-first offense with Joe Flacco under center; Flacco is averaging a whopping 46.7 dropbacks through three starts. I’m still inclined to bet against Flacco individually in this scenario with the Browns down to their fourth and fifth offensive tackles, second-string center, and No. 2 left guard after losing Joel Bitonio (back) in Week 15. The Texans have yielded an NFL-low 14 TD passes. … Albeit in low-volume form, Jerome Ford kept control of Cleveland’s 1A back role in last Sunday’s win over Chicago, out-snapping Kareem Hunt 35 to 22 and out-touching him 12 to 8. The Texans have shut down rushing attacks all season — holding enemy RBs to 3.2 yards per carry — but have coughed up the NFL’s eighth-most catches to running backs (73). Ford is averaging 5.1 targets over his last five games.
Flacco’s 2023 targets: David Njoku 28; Amari Cooper 27; Elijah Moore 21; Cedric Tillman 18; Ford 13. … The top beneficiaries of Cleveland’s Flacco-driven pass-first philosophical shift are Njoku and Cooper, each of whom exceeded 100 yards in Week 15’s win over the Bears. Further working in Njoku’s Week 16 favor is Houston’s allowance of the NFL’s second-most catches (91) and third-most yards (875) to tight ends.
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