Arizona @ Pittsburgh
Team Totals: Steelers 23.5, Cardinals 18
In Weeks 1-9, the Cardinals’ situation-neutral-adjusted pass rate (42%) ranked dead last in the league. In three games with Kyler Murray under center, Arizona’s neutral pass rate (62%) is fourth highest. Week 13 opponent Pittsburgh has allowed 20 points or fewer in seven straight contests and yielded the NFL’s eighth-fewest quarterback rushing yards (168). I’m still firing up Murray as a borderline season-long QB1 — he’s fantasy’s overall QB9 since coming off I.R. — but also viewing the Steelers’ D/ST as confidently playable. … This is a #RevengeGame for James Conner, who lost significant Week 12 usage to Michael Carter and Emari Demercado, albeit in a 37-14 blowout loss to the Rams. Conner remained the Cardinals’ lead back early on. Pittsburgh has posed a middling matchup for enemy backs. I’m treating Conner as a dicey RB2. I also bet the under on this game’s total and am anticipating a low-scoring affair.
Kyler’s 2023 target distribution: Trey McBride 25; Marquise Brown 21; Greg Dortch 17; Rondale Moore 12; Conner 8; Michael Wilson 6. … By far, McBride leads Arizona in catches (20), yards (234), and first-down conversions (13) on Murray’s 2023 throws. Averaging nearly nine targets over his last five games, McBride is an established every-week fantasy TE1.
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