Evan Silva’s Matchups: Commanders at Cowboys

Thanksgiving 4:30 PM ET Game

Washington @ Dallas

Team Totals: Cowboys 30, Commanders 19

This looks like another eruption spot for Dallas’ D/ST at home versus Washington’s swinging-gate pass protection, which has taken small strides since early in the season but still permitted 10 Sam Howell takedowns over its last three games. Only six teams have yielded fewer fantasy quarterback points than the Cowboys. I’m shying away from Howell beyond Thanksgiving-only slates. … Brian Robinson handled true feature back work in Antonio Gibson’s (toe) Week 11 absence en route to a career-high 78% playing-time clip and 24 touches against the Giants. Gibson returned to limited early-week practice and has a chance to play here. Dallas is holding opposing RBs to 3.8 yards per carry and the league’s eighth-fewest fantasy points, while game-script projections are decidedly anti-Robinson with Washington installed as a two-score underdog on the road. Robinson’s recent passing-game surge suggests he can develop into more than an early-down grinder — he has 13 catches for 177 yards over the past two weeks — but Gibson’s return would certainly cut heavily into Robinson’s receiving opportunities on Thursday.

Howell’s 2023 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 86; Jahan Dotson 63; Logan Thomas 58; Curtis Samuel 51; Gibson 35; Robinson 33; Dyami Brown 20; John Bates 19; Jamison Crowder 18; Byron Pringle 16; Cole Turner 13. … Only the Jets have surrendered fewer fantasy WR points than the Cowboys. McLaurin is a season-long WR3 play but warrants heavy DFS tournament consideration on Thursday-only slates averaging 8.8 targets over Washington’s last six games.