Detroit @ Miami
Team Totals: Lions 28.5, Dolphins 21.5
As ETR Snaps & Pace specialist Pat Thorman has detailed, the Dolphins’ best defense is their commitment to playing slow in order to reduce possessions for both teams and raise variance, theoretically increasing their chances to win as the team on the field with inferior talent on a week-in and week-out basis. The Fins are 1-6, but each of their last three losses were by one score. I took the Dolphins to cover the 7-point spread here. … With a 28.5-point team total, I’m still betting heavily on Jared Goff against a Miami defense allowing NFL highs in completion rate (77%), yards per pass attempt (8.3), and passer rating (199.5). … Jahmyr Gibbs leads the NFL in touches (191), yards from scrimmage (1,058), and all-purpose TDs (10). He’s fantasy’s overall RB1 play every week. … Sione Vaki is an underrated handcuff stash continuing to earn the trust of Dan Campbell’s staff more and more. Campbell has openly lauded Vaki’s pass protection, and Vaki logged a season-high 12 touches on 28% of the Lions’ offensive snaps last week.
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