Detroit @ Baltimore
Team Totals: Ravens 22.5, Lions 19.5
I bet the over on 42 points on Lions-Ravens, but there are concerns. Jared Goff’s adverse road-game splits stand atop them — his career QB rating dives from 98.0 at home to 88.9 away — while Baltimore is yielding just 4.1 yards per play this season, second fewest in the NFL. Yet the Lions have won four straight games — all by 14 points or more — and are 13-3 over their last 16 contests. At the very worst, I expect this to be a highly competitive, back-and-forth affair that keeps Goff in fringe QB1/2 contention. Goff is fantasy’s QB6 to date. … David Montgomery (ribs) seems to be facing a multi-week absence, yet Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) is due back. When Montgomery missed Week 3 with a thigh injury, Gibbs banked 18 touches on a 60% snap rate versus Craig Reynolds’ four touches on a 29% playing-time clip. The Ravens’ run defense has been middling, permitting 4.2 yards per carry and 124.7 total yards per game to enemy backs. I’m valuing Gibbs as an upside RB2 play here. Reynolds is a desperate flex option.
Goff’s 2023 target distribution: Amon-Ra St. Brown 50; Sam LaPorta 42; Josh Reynolds 27; Gibbs 18; Kalif Raymond 17; Montgomery and Marvin Jones 10; Jameson Williams and Brock Wright 6. … St. Brown has cleared 100 yards and/or hit paydirt in all five of his appearances this season. ARSB is an established every-week WR1.
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