Green Bay @ Atlanta
Team Totals: Falcons 21, Packers 19.5
I took the Falcons to cover the 1.5-point spread in this one with top Packers skill-position player Aaron Jones (hamstring) likely to miss and top WR Christian Watson (hamstring) trying to work his way back. … Jordan Love turned in a promising opener; his mobility popped off the screen, Love averaged 9.1 yards per pass attempt, and he would have thrown a fourth touchdown pass had a wide-open Luke Musgrave not fallen down at the end of a 37-yard completion just shy of the end zone. Yet Love had a clean pocket all game — the Bears ranked 31st in Week 1 pressure rate — and Love’s weapons are dropping like flies. I’m approaching him as a mere QB2 this week, especially considering this game’s low total. … A.J. Dillon looked slower than molasses against Chicago, but his workload projection is too high to ignore assuming Jones sits. The Falcons’ defensive front looked vulnerable in Week 1’s win over Carolina, coughing up 167 total yards and 4.9 yards per carry to Panthers backs. Dillon is a volume-based RB2 starter at Atlanta.
Love’s Week 1 target distribution: Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed 5; Jones and Musgrave 4; Dillon and Samori Toure 3; Dontayvion Wicks 2; Malik Heath 1. … Fifth-round rookie Wicks led Packers wideouts in Week 1 snaps, second-round rookie Reed was No. 2, Doubs and UDFA rookie Heath tied for third, and Toure was fifth as part of a five-man WRBC.
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