Sunday Night Football
Green Bay @ Seattle
Team Totals: Packers 24.5, Seahawks 21.5
The Packers only ran 45 plays in last week’s divisional bout and, in four games out of their bye, have registered the second-lowest pass rate (47.1%) and a -8.6% Pass Rate Over Expectation (29th) with Josh Jacobs plowing forward for touch counts of 22 (RB5), 26 (RB2), 23 (RB5), and 18 (RB4); Jordan Love has averaged 17.4 points per game (QB18) despite leading the league with 10.4 yards per attempt in that span due to negligent volume. Seattle’s front seven has turned the corner in limiting enemy RBs to 4.0 yards per carry (22nd) for a single touchdown since Week 9, but Jacobs’ 10 targets to Emanuel Wilson’s zero the past month keep the former elevated as a low-end RB1 — the Seahawks have permitted 6/39/0, 5/41/0, 5/44/1, and 9/51/1 receiving to backfields out of their own Week 10 bye. I’m expecting a slower contest decided in the trenches (rendering Love to a Superflex play) given that Green Bay’s four losses this year have come against Super Bowl contenders in the Eagles (by 5), Vikings (2), and Lions (10 and 3).
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