Saturday Football
1:00 PM ET Game
Minnesota @ Cincinnati
Team Totals: Bengals 21, Vikings 17.5
After benching downward-spiraling Josh Dobbs in Week 14’s narrow win over the Raiders, the Vikings appear likely to start Nick Mullens in a concerning spot at Cincinnati with RT Brian O’Neill (ankle), RG Ed Ingram (hip), and All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson (chest) all in doubt. Mullens has dropped back to pass just 68 times since the 2020 season and could be subbed out at any point in favor of Dobbs or somewhat promising rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall. On Wednesday, HC Kevin O’Connell wouldn’t name Dobbs or Hall as Mullens’ backup at the Bengals. This is a prime spot for Cincy’s D/ST. … Alexander Mattison’s (ankle) availability is also in question with Ty Chandler next in line for lead-back work and special teams-type Kene Nwangwu behind him. Chandler out-touched Nwangwu 15 to 2 in last week’s win, while Cincy has played middling or worse run defense all season. If Mattison sits, Chandler will be a boom-bust RB2.
The Vikings sent Jefferson to the hospital after he suffered a chest injury on a literal hospital-ball throw via Dobbs on Jefferson’s 13th snap of last week’s game. Signs still point to Jefferson facing the Bengals, and Mullens is a capable enough passer to deliver him the rock. Mullens’ completion rate on those 68 aforementioned dropbacks is 73%. … Jordan Addison’s of-late box-score production has underwhelmed, yet he’s played at least 94% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps in six straight while bypassing K.J. Osborn as the team’s No. 2 receiver. But with Mullens under center, I’m valuing Addison as a WR4/flex option and Osborn as a WR5. They’re more appealing on Saturday-only DFS slates. … T.J. Hockenson encounters the top Week 15 matchup among Vikings skill-position players against a Bengals defense surrendering NFL highs in catches (88) and yards (932) to tight ends. Last week, the Colts’ usually fantasy-irrelevant TEs combined to cook Cincy for 8/65/1 receiving. Hockenson has cleared 50 yards in nine straight games.
Jake Browning enters Week 15 with fantasy finishes of QB18 (vs. PIT), QB4 (@ JAX), and QB4 (vs. IND) under his belt and a near-perfect 79.3% completion rate, highest by any NFL quarterback over his first three starts since 1950. Vikings DC Brian Flores’ extreme-blitz defense presents a daunting challenge, however, yielding the NFL’s eighth-fewest touchdown passes (15) and having held seven of its last eight opponents to 21 points or fewer. I’m valuing Browning as a two-QB/Superflex-league play rather than a bankable QB1 starter. … Perhaps benefiting from more under-center formations with Browning rather than Joe Burrow’s preferred shotgun looks, Joe Mixon has eclipsed 120 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games and on the season ranks No. 3 in the NFL in carries inside the opposing 5-yard line (26). The Bengals’ revised, screen-heavy offense has led to Mixon averaging over 46 yards receiving in three straight affairs. Screen passes are a sensible way to counterattack Flores’ pressure-obsessed defense. … On his 54-yard screen-pass touchdown against the Colts, Next Gen Stats clocked Chase Brown as 2023’s second-fastest ball carrier at 22 MPH. Brown has rendered previous third-down back Trayveon Williams obsolete. Over the past two weeks, Brown has parlayed 20 touches into 166 yards and the end-zone trip.
Browning’s 2023 target distribution: Ja’Marr Chase 26; Tyler Boyd 16; Mixon and Tanner Hudson 14; Tee Higgins and Trenton Irwin 7; Drew Sample 4; Brown 3. … Chase’s stat lines in Browning’s three starts are all over the place at 4/81/0, 11/149/1, and 3/29/0. Inconsistency should be expected from Chase with a backup under center. It helps that the Vikings have yielded the NFL’s third-most catches (186) to enemy wideouts. … Possession-slot WR Boyd has cleared 60 yards once in 13 games. … Browning is 12-of-14 passing for 95 yards and a touchdown when targeting Hudson, yet Hudson (14) played fewer Week 14 snaps than fellow TEs Sample (40) and Mitchell Wilcox (22). … Higgins’ lowly target counts are 4 and 3 over the last two weeks with Browning under center. Higgins is now a shaky WR4/flex option in season-long leagues.
Score Prediction: Bengals 20, Vikings 17
4:30 PM ET Game
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
Team Totals: Colts 22, Steelers 19.5
Kenny Pickett’s (ankle) continued absence gives Mitchell Trubisky another start after Trubisky banked Week 14’s QB10 fantasy finish fueled by an 8/30/1 rushing line versus New England. Trubisky stands to benefit from this game’s indoor setting beneath Lucas Oil Stadium’s dome, although this year’s Colts rank No. 4 in the NFL in interceptions (13) and No. 3 in sacks (42). Indy’s D/ST is certainly playable. Trubisky is best deployed as a contrarian DFS option on Saturday-only slates.
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