Houston @ Atlanta
Team Totals: Falcons 21, Texans 20
Engineered by PFF alumnus and Kyle Shanahan disciple Bobby Slowik, the Texans’ offense surges into Week 5 having dropped 30+ points on Jacksonville and Pittsburgh in consecutive games despite immense O-Line depletion. No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud has thrown for 1,212 yards, second most (Cam Newton) in league history for a quarterback through his first four NFL games. Yet this is a ho-hum spot for Stroud; the Falcons have yielded the NFL’s sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.6) and 13th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, while Texans-Falcons has Week 5’s third-lowest total. … There is a chance the Texans get back LT Laremy Tunsil (knee), T/G Josh Jones (hand), and RT Tytus Howard (hand) against Atlanta. Chronologically, Dameon Pierce’s Weeks 1-4 touch counts were 13, 17, 17, and 25. His 59% snap rate in last Sunday’s win over Pittsburgh was a season high. I’m riding with Pierce as a volume-driven RB2 play here. This profiles as a neutral-script game, positioning Pierce to handle repetitive handoffs.
Stroud’s Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Nico Collins 32; Robert Woods 31; Tank Dell 24; Dalton Schultz 16; Pierce 11; John Metchie 5. … Third-year breakout Collins enters Week 5 with a 67/1,044/6 (15.6 YPR) receiving line over his last 17 games. 20th in the league in Air Yards share (34%), Collins has earned every-week WR2/3 treatment, regardless of opponent.
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