Houston @ Baltimore
Team Totals: Ravens 27, Texans 17
This is an eruption spot for Baltimore’s D/ST against fledgling rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who managed an anemic 62.3 preseason passer rating. The Texans placed starting LG Kenyon Green (shoulder) on full-season I.R. at the end of camp, lost starting C Juice Scruggs (hamstring) and starting RT Tytus Howard to short-term I.R., and kept key reserve T/G Charlie Heck (foot) on reserve/PUP. … Consequently, this sets up as a dangerously low-floor spot for the rest of Houston’s skill-position players on the road in a hostile environment with an extremely shorthanded supporting cast. I’m downgrading Dameon Pierce to a low-end RB2/flex option and not giving serious consideration to teeing up any of the Texans’ wide receivers in season-long leagues. I have minimal hope for TE Dalton Schultz as a bottom-barrel tight end option.
A historically fast starter, Lamar Jackson (0.45) ranks No. 2 behind only Patrick Mahomes (0.54) among quarterbacks in Expected Points Added per play in Week 1 games over the past five seasons. The Ravens have exceeded their team total in 75% of those Opening Day starts by Jackson, averaging a whopping 37 points per game. In his first season under creative Air Raid proponent OC Todd Monken, I’m expecting Lamar to come out of the gates cooking.
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