When drafting a defense for fantasy football, our primary focus should be on how we can rack up fantasy points (sacks, turnovers, TDs), as opposed to just limiting the opponent’s scoring output. Accomplishing both is obviously great, but we already have a good sense of which teams are expected to score the most or least points in a given game by using Vegas team totals.
But how do we know which teams to target for sacks, interceptions, and fumble recoveries?
Sacks, interceptions, and a sack leading to a fumble can only occur when the opposing team drops back to pass, so the easiest way to estimate defensive success in fantasy scoring is to target defenses that will see plenty of dropbacks and have the means to benefit from those dropbacks. How exactly can we target these defenses? I like to use the following criteria:
- The opposing quarterback is vulnerable to sacks and turnovers.
- The defense I’m selecting is favored to win the game; the bigger the spread, the better.
- The defense has an advantage in Thorn’s DL/OL matchup for that game.
Following those three criteria will generally put us in a good spot to get fantasy production out of our defenses.
One of the biggest edges we offer at ETR comes from the great Brandon Thorn. Thorn analyzes the OL/DL matchups in every game on a weekly basis, as well as providing a full list of preseason rankings. Using Thorn’s season-long Offensive Line and Defensive Line rankings can give us a massive edge over our league-mates when drafting a defense. We can predict which teams will have the biggest advantages in the trenches throughout the course of the season, which will help us select defenses more likely to rack up pressures and sacks and lead us to fantasy points.
There are a few defenses in the league we can feel confident in starting each week, but the vast majority of fantasy defenses are streaming-only options against inferior offenses or inexperienced quarterbacks. Below is a breakdown, by tier, of our favorite defenses to roster early in the season. The roster turnover on fantasy D/STs throughout the season is higher than any other position, so we’ll focus mainly on the beginning stretch of games and help you piece together in-season defenses more with our in-season content.
Tier 1: Defenses Worth Paying Up For
If I’m in a shallow league and want to pay up for a strong defense, I’m targeting these two.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers offer exactly what we’re looking for in a defense on draft day. They have an elite defensive line (Thorn’s No. 1 DL) and a series of soft early-season matchups against mistake-prone quarterbacks and weak offensive lines. Mike Tomlin’s squad will take on Justin Fields and the Jets on the road in Week 1, face Sam Darnold and Seattle’s 29th-ranked OL for their home opener in Week 2, and then head to New England against Drake Maye and the Pats’ 24th-ranked OL in Week 3. All three quarterbacks are prone to taking plenty of sacks, leaving the freshly-minted T.J. Watt licking his chops staring at their early-season schedule.
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