In 2021, Devin Singletary had the worst receiving grade (via Pro Football Focus) of any running back with at least 30 targets. Through three years of his NFL career, he has yet to post an above-average receiving grade in any individual season.
This spring, the Bills tried to sign J.D. McKissic, who reportedly agreed to terms with Buffalo before changing his mind and re-signing with the Commanders.
On Friday night, the Bills made their move to acquire a pass-catching running back when they selected James Cook — younger brother of Dalvin — with the 63rd overall pick. Rich Hribar noted that Cook averaged 10.9 yards per reception for his career and posted 1.63 yards per route run in 2021, fourth in this year’s rookie class. Georgia used him all over the formation during his time in Athens, and Bills GM Brandon Beane hinted Buffalo could use Cook in a hybrid role in 2022. In fact, Beane went so far as to say that the Bills drafted Cook as a result of not getting McKissic, which serves as further indication he’ll assume pass-catching duties out of the backfield immediately:
Brandon Beane said that they view James Cook as sort of a wide receiver. He mentions that the Bills didn't get JD McKissic and Cook is someone that could fill a similar role in the offense for the #Bills.
— Matt Parrino (@MattParrino) April 30, 2022
Second-round draft capital is no joke for a running back, and it’s easy to be excited about Cook considering he could be Buffalo’s pass-catching back right from the get-go. Let’s take a look at what we’re expecting from the Bills’ backfield in the ETR projections.
JAMES COOK
Projection: 86.3 carries for 379.7 yards and 2.8 touchdowns, 40.3 catches on 53.9 targets for 362.5 yards and 2.2 touchdowns. RB36 on Underdog (116th overall).
- Cook was in a timeshare throughout his college career and never handled more than 113 carries in a season (which he did in 2021 while splitting with Zamir White). For that reason, we’re hesitant to give him a huge rushing share right off the bat, especially given his smaller frame (he’s 5-foot-11 and 199 pounds). However, the combination of his pass-catching profile, draft capital, and Beane’s comments about him post-draft indicate he’s in line for a sizable receiving workload from Day 1.
- Last year, the Bills directed 15.4% of their passes to running backs, 29th in the league. In 2020, that number was 13.5% (28th). That figure should rise now that they have a competent receiver out of the backfield. Cook projects as someone who has immediate standalone value as a receiver and contingent upside if something happens to Singletary. Combine that with the strength of the Bills’ offense, and he fits the mold of a Zero RB target perfectly. We’re comfortable projecting Cook as a top-36 running back.
DEVIN SINGLETARY
Old projection: 172.6 carries for 769.5 yards and 5.3 touchdowns, 29.0 catches on 38.0 targets for 202.2 yards and 1.1 touchdowns. RB28 on Underdog (84th overall).
New projection: 172.6 carries for 769.5 yards and 5.3 touchdowns, 27.4 catches on 35.9 targets for 191.1 yards and 1.0 touchdowns. RB35 on Underdog (103rd overall).
- As we touched on above, Cook is unproven handling a larger rushing workload, so we still expect Singletary to be the primary rusher with the rookie taking change-of-pace work from Zack Moss and Duke Johnson.
- The issue for Singletary is that Cook will steal high-value touches in the passing game. We were already assuming Singletary’s target share would fall from where it was last year based on his subpar efficiency in that area and speculation the Bills could add another back, so we didn’t have to dock him too much after the Bills added Cook.
- Singletary’s fall in the rankings is mostly because we dinged his ceiling, as Cook likely has more potential to earn a larger role compared to Moss or Johnson. Singletary doesn’t have the same path to a three-down workload with Cook in the picture.
OTHER BILLS PLAYERS
- Moss has been in and out of the doghouse during his two years in Buffalo, while Johnson profiles as more of a depth piece at this point in his career. We are mainly splitting backfield work between Singletary and Cook right now — with the former as the primary rusher and the latter handling passing downs — which doesn’t leave Moss and Johnson with anything more than scraps. Neither player is anything more than a final-round dart throw.
- The Bills brought back Isaiah McKenzie, but his base salary is just $1.4 million this year. Beane’s comments about using Cook as a wide receiver and the Georgia product’s versatility and ability to line up all over the formation could spell bad news for the veteran McKenzie — who also has 19 carries over the past two years in a hybrid role. We decreased his target share slightly after the addition of Cook.
