The fire sale in Indianapolis continued at the trade deadline with the Colts shipping Josh Downs to the Chiefs for two 2027 Day 3 picks. Let’s break this move down from a fantasy standpoint on both sides.
JOSH DOWNS
- We finally got Downs in a full-time role this season, and the Colts’ pass game (or lack thereof) immediately killed any prospects of him crushing it in fantasy. With that being said, though, Downs has only earned 0.19 targets per route run this year — significantly down from the 0.25 he earned last year and in another world from his 0.31 2024 figure. Of course, some per-route target-earning regression is expected with the routes increasing, but Downs has just an 18.8% seasonal target share, rendering him useless for fantasy.
- Downs tweeted his excitement that he was traded, and he had officially requested a trade from Indy as well. It’s possible a lack of motivation became a factor in his diminished production over the last month.
- The move to K.C. at least gives him some upside and saves him from a Colts team that is barreling toward starting Anthony Richardson, but it’s up for debate what the role looks like with the Chiefs. For starters, it’s unclear how much Downs plays in 2-WR sets after spending his entire pre-2026 career as a slot-only option. He also has to learn an entirely new offense on the fly. Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce are both trusted targets of Patrick Mahomes, and K.C. has bigger-bodied WRs further down the depth chart who could steal a frustrating number of snaps in positive game script as well.
- Still, from a fantasy standpoint, Downs was completely unusable in Indianapolis, and things could get even worse there if Richardson gets the nod. The move to Kansas City at least gives Downs some chance to become fantasy-viable, though managers now have to wait and see what the role looks like for Downs in his new home.
OTHER CHIEFS PASS CATCHERS
- Xavier Worthy‘s target-earning ability per route (0.2 TPRR) is the same as last year and slightly lower than his rookie season (0.21), but his efficiency has cratered to 5.9 yards per target despite the Chiefs’ passing offense becoming more efficient on the whole (Patrick Mahomes is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt). That’s not a good sign, and Worthy has been a massive disappointment all season. He won’t completely disappear from this passing offense, but the decision to add a wide receiver clearly signals what K.C. thinks of him. Rashee Rice has also been less of a focal point this year (0.35 TPRR in 2024, 0.32 last year, 0.24 this season), though he remains efficient at 9.1 yards per target. Since Rice returned from his hamstring injury, Kansas City has also kept him in a part-time role. Rice played just 55.1% of snaps in Week 8 — easily explained by it being his first game back — but that number only jumped to 57.6% on Sunday. It’ll be interesting where that number goes from here since Rashee played 71+% of snaps in the first three games of the year, and game script could have contributed in Week 9 with Jalen Royals and Andrew Armstrong as superior blocking options at wideout. While Rashee remains heavily involved, Kansas City has moved away from him sucking up 30+% of targets as he did in 2024 and 2025. The decision to add someone like Downs, who has been a strong target earner historically — albeit not this year — further caps Rashee’s ceiling.
- It’ll be interesting to see how K.C. deploys its WRs. Downs has played plenty on the outside in 2026 (78% of snaps in total for IND) but was notoriously pigeonholed in a slot-only role before that. Rice plays plenty in the slot as well, and Royals and especially Armstrong have drawn attention for their blocking ability. Rice and Downs are clearly their best pass-catching options, though, and you’d expect them to win out as the season progresses and Downs gets acclimated to the system. That makes Worthy a big loser here, but the degree to which the Chiefs rotate their WRs will determine Downs’ viability in his new landing spot. Rice’s role seems secure, though he still takes a hit with Downs providing more competition from a routes and target-earning standpoint.
- Travis Kelce has drank from the fountain of youth this season, improving his yards per target to 10.0 so far in his age-37 season. He still takes a hit from the Downs acquisition simply because it’s increased target competition.
- Cyrus Allen has drawn buzz at times this year, but this move buries him on the depth chart. Royals and Armstrong already had zero fantasy allure but similarly drop down the depth chart.
COLTS PASS CATCHERS
- Good luck, Daniel Jones. Dimes hasn’t earned himself any favors with his play this season, but with Downs gone and Keenan Allen shipped to San Francisco as well, his WR depth chart consists of Laquon Treadwell, Deion Burks, Ashton Dulin, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Tyler Warren‘s target share could get pretty nutty, but he’s only averaging 5.2 yards per target, and now opposing defenses have basically no other pass catchers who require significant attention (Jonathan Taylor is, of course, a game-changing talent but obviously does most of his work on the ground). It’s an upgrade for Warren in the short term because he’ll get more targets, but the Colts will likely turn to Anthony Richardson at some point, which will further mute their total pass-game output. This is also a lost season for Warren; you’d think any minor injury is a threat to end his season, and the Colts could just decide to shut down late in the year regardless of whether he’s hurt or not.
- Similarly, the decision to tank — and keep JT — is really bad news for Taylor. JT has a respectable 11.9% seasonal target share, including 13.4% over his last four games, but the team-level environment is just so bad that it’s impossible to get excited about him. Additionally, the Colts have played Seth McGowan on a quarter of snaps over the last month. JT should see more targets without Downs and Allen, but Indy has no reason to overload him this year, and it’s hard to imagine them scoring enough touchdowns to make Taylor a fantasy smash.
- Treadwell is now the WR1 here. He’s earned just 0.12 TPRR this season. That’ll go up now that every WR with a pulse is gone, but he’s not going to be a fantasy-relevant option.
