Cooper Kupp will stay in the NFC West after signing a three-year deal worth upwards of $15 million per year. He’ll join Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a starting WR for new QB Sam Darnold. Let’s dig into the fantasy implications.
COOPER KUPP
- 77.6% of JSN’s snaps came in the slot last year, per PFF. 62.4% of Kupp’s snaps came from that position. They will presumably share slot duties with Kupp perhaps playing more on the outside, but can Kupp still win on the outside in his age-32 season? Kupp’s production absolutely fell off a cliff in 2024, as he registered 10 catches over his final five games and failed to register over a 16% target share in any individual game over that span. He’s up there in age with a lengthy injury history and cooled off dramatically after a hot start. It’s fair to question how productive he can be this season, especially if JSN soaks up the majority of the easy slot targets.
- The Seahawks have been clear in their intent to completely change their offense in 2025. They fired Ryan Grubb and hired Klint Kubiak, and have outwardly expressed a desire to switch to a wide zone run scheme. The Athletic’s Michael-Shawn Dugar wrote that you can expect more 2-WR sets for Seattle next season. Kupp figures to be that second WR — Marquez Valdes-Scantling was the incumbent WR2 before this signing — and will play a lot in what has the potential to be a high-TPRR role, but, as mentioned above, one has to question his effectiveness at this stage of his career.
- Kupp’s career average depth of target is 8.2 (8.7 in 2024), and it’s logical to think that should decrease with age. JSN’s aDOT was 9.2 last year, so if the Seahawks really want to run more 2-WR sets and assuming JSN and Kupp are those two WRs, they are lacking field-stretching ability at the moment.
JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA
- JSN just posted 100/1,130/6 in his sophomore season and finished the year as the co-WR1 alongside DK Metcalf. Kupp started the year only slightly behind Puka Nacua for the Rams, but, as mentioned previously, his production dropped off a cliff during the second half of the season and he’ll be 32 years by Week 1 of the 2025 season. Kupp still had a 0.27 TPRR in 2024 — one of the best marks in football — but the way his season concluded raises the question of how much volume he can handle this upcoming season.
- If we get the Kupp of old, this could be trouble for JSN given we haven’t seen him as a down-the-field explosive-play guy yet and Kupp could vacuum up underneath targets. However, I tend to think JSN has established himself as the clear alpha here and Kupp’s best days are behind him (by quite a bit). If that’s the case — or if Kupp just nosedives completely — there’s a path to a mid-level WR1 season for JSN.
- The Seahawks were never going into the 2025 season with MVS as their WR2. They have three picks in the first two rounds. They could still draft a WR, which would obviously be bad news for JSN from a target competition perspective. But if they don’t, it’s likely better for JSN that they added a potentially over-the-hill veteran like Kupp rather than drafting an explosive young player who could ascend into a large role by the end of the season.
