The first major veteran RB domino of the summer has fallen, as Ezekiel Elliott signed with the Patriots on a one-year deal worth up to $6 million with a $3 million base salary. New England had previously worked out Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette, making it clear that they were in the market for an RB addition, and they’ve finally found a deal that works with Elliott.
Today, we’ll dig into what this means and how our projections changed for all affected parties. Let’s get into it.
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON
Old projection: 226.0 carries for 973.9 yards and 6.0 TDs. 48.5 catches on 63.2 targets for 340.3 yards and 1.2 TDs.
New projection: 215.1 carries for 926.6 yards and 5.7 TDs. 46.3 catches on 60.5 targets for 325.5 yards and 1.1 TDs.
- Stevenson played 17 games last year and totaled 210 carries. Damien Harris played just 11 games, leaving Stevenson as an every-snap workhorse for multiple games during his sophomore campaign. Stevenson admitted he felt worn down near the end of the season. In his words:
“I’d say I’m feeling it. I feel what everyone talks about with the NFL season. But I feel like I’m doing a good job taking care of my body, and I’m just trying to stay proactive more than anything. But yeah, I’m feeling the season, for sure.”
- Between that and the Patriots’ decision to bring in Cook and Fournette for a visit, they telegraphed their desire for a veteran running back. As far as vet RBs go, Elliott is likely the best possible option for Stevenson’s fantasy outlook, as Fournette and especially Cook bring much more to the table at this point in their respective careers. Elliott’s reputation is that he’s great in short-yardage situations and pass protection. Stevenson may lose some goal-line work with Zeke in town, but he should still easily lead the team in carries. There have been murmurs of Ty Montgomery getting pass-catching snaps here and there now that he’s healthy and maybe Zeke gets some third-down snaps to pass protect, but this probably doesn’t impact Stevenson’s target share too much. We were already lower than the market on Stevenson because we expected the Pats to sign someone, and we lowered him a little bit more now that it’s confirmed, but this is better for him than if NE had signed Cook or Fournette.
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT
Old projection: N/A
New projection: 109.7 carries for 407.2 yards and 3.8 TDs. 18.4 catches on 24.7 targets for 126.0 yards and 0.6 TDs.
- Elliott stumbled to 3.8 yards per carry in 2022, his third straight season at 4.2 YPC or lower (after recording 4.5 yards per tote or better in three of his first four professional seasons). At 28 years old with 1,881 career carries to his name, Elliott’s best days are behind him, and he’s most valuable in a complementary role rather than being a team’s primary back. The good news: That’s exactly what he’ll do in New England, as Stevenson can handle RB1 duties with Zeke playing in spots that better fit his skill set. The bad news (if you’re excited about Zeke in fantasy): That complementary role isn’t super fantasy-relevant unless he falls into the end zone 10+ times. He could turn in a relevant fantasy year with TDs alone, but it’s not like Stevenson is never going to touch the ball inside the 5-yard line, and the Patriots look like a below-average offense in a division with four elite defenses.
- Zeke should get slightly more than a handful of carries each game and will have some usable weeks when he scores a touchdown, but betting on him for consistent fantasy production likely isn’t a great idea. He needs a Stevenson injury to be relevant every week (and, even then, it’s still unclear what his touch ceiling is in this offense).
OTHER PLAYERS
- This is a death blow for Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, at least at the start of the season. They had previously been in a competition for the RB2 role behind Stevenson, but Zeke will immediately take that gig. Strong and Harris could still be relevant if Stevenson or Elliott miss time, but they are off fantasy draft boards for the time being.
- The Cowboys hadn’t ruled out a reunion with Elliott and have not been linked with any other free-agent running backs. That means this signing probably solidifies that Dallas is going into the season with Tony Pollard, Malik Davis, and Deuce Vaughn at running back (with Ronald Jones also eligible to return after he serves a two-game suspension). We had already shifted most of the volume in this backfield to Pollard and had minimal work going to unlisted (which is how we factor in the risk that a team signs a free agent), but this is notable for anyone who expected Zeke to re-sign with the Cowboys. Pollard had 12 carries inside the 10-yard line and six carries inside the 5 in 2022. Both of those numbers should jump with Zeke out of town. Pollard is in line for an every-down, multi-faceted workload on one of the best offenses in football. He’s a fantasy RB1 this year with an overall RB1 ceiling.
