The Jets have been doing everything they can to give Zach Wilson weapons all offseason long. They have been tied to Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, and DK Metcalf at various points throughout the spring, although they failed to actually acquire any of them.
In Round 1, the Jets drafted Ohio State WR Garrett Wilson with the 10th overall pick. They continued their quest to improve their offensive weaponry by drafting Iowa State RB Breece Hall in the second round on Friday night, making Hall the first running back off the board in the process. Hall will team up with Michael Carter to form one of the most intriguing young backfield duos in the league. From a fantasy perspective, it’s not ideal for either Hall or Carter. Let’s take a look at where both players rank in ETR’s projections after the Hall pick.
BREECE HALL
Projection: 189.2 carries for 832.4 yards and 5.7 touchdowns, 34.2 catches on 47.0 targets for 272.8 yards and 1.0 touchdowns. RB23 on Underdog (67th overall).
- It’s not a great landing spot for Hall simply because the Jets look like one of the least inspiring offenses in the NFL. Still, New York traded up to spend early Round 2 draft capital on Hall, a promising sign for his early-career volume outlook. It helps that the Iowa State product is tailor-made for the modern NFL, with a rare blend of athleticism and multi-faceted college production. In Hall’s rookie profile, ETR dynasty expert Anthony Amico raved about Hall’s numbers in the Big 12:
“Hall was a three-year producer for the Cyclones, leading the team in rushing each year. He broke out as a 19-year-old true sophomore, which puts him in the most successful cohort of RB prospects. Hall then improved upon his numbers going into his final season. Hall is top 10 in this class in receiving yards per team pass attempt, and only two RBs had a better adjusted yards per play.
Hall’s final two seasons were truly fantastic. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry on over 500 carries, caught 59 passes, and scored a whopping 46 total touchdowns. At his listed weight of 220 pounds, Hall is someone who profiles as being able to carry an NFL load.”
- Hall smashed the NFL Combine with a 4.39 40-yard dash and impressive jumping numbers, signaling a unique combination of speed and explosiveness. He’s a strong prospect from an athletic perspective and figures to be the lead back in the Jets’ committee from Day 1.
- With that being said, we project the Jets to be near the bottom of the league in both points and rushing attempts per game. Given how much they have invested in their offense this offseason, there’s room for those numbers to increase from what we expect, but it would take a major leap from Zach Wilson for this to be considered even an average landing spot for Hall. Carter will likely remain involved as a receiver, which could handicap Hall’s three-down potential in Year 1.
- Still, Hall is a premier running back prospect who got early Round 2 draft capital, and he should assume RB1 duties for the Jets right away. He’s a fringe top-24 option as a rookie.
MICHAEL CARTER:
Old projection: 180.8 carries for 769.7 yards and 4.5 touchdowns, 43.6 catches on 60.8 targets for 358.9 yards and 1.0 touchdowns. RB24 on Underdog (76th overall).
New projection: 113.5 carries for 483.3 yards and 2.8 touchdowns, 33.7 catches on 47.0 targets for 277.3 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. RB40 on Underdog (132nd overall).
- It’s a devastating blow for fantasy players who were hoping Carter would be trusted with a three-down role in Year 2. He’s still in line to be the secondary back in a committee – likely in a receiving role – but Hall will likely be the leader on early downs from the get-go, and he’s a capable receiver out of the backfield as well.
- Carter has standalone value as a pass-catcher and contingent upside in the event of a Hall injury, but he’s also the RB2 on what looks like one of the worst offenses in the league. For that reason, he falls into the RB4 conversation.
OTHER JETS RUNNING BACKS
- The Jets probably won’t carry four running backs, so either Ty Johnson or Tevin Coleman will be the odd man out in New York. We basically made both players irrelevant in our projections, as this looks like a two-man backfield in a subpar offense. Neither Johnson nor Coleman project to have a significant role.
