Fantasy Fallout: Lions Sip Jameson with 12th Overall Pick

Leading up to the NFL Draft, reports surfaced that Alabama WR Jameson Williams could be selected earlier than initially projected. Once expected to go in the second half of Round 1, Williams entered Thursday night as a true contender to be the first wideout off the board.

He ended up as the WR4 — behind Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave — but he still was the 12th pick off the board. All in all, Williams went right around where he was expected to go.

The surprise was the team that picked him. The Lions moved all the way up from No. 32 — the last pick of the first round — to No. 12 to select the speedy Williams. While the 21-year-old may not be ready for Week 1 of his rookie season as he makes his way back from a late-season ACL tear, Detroit clearly views him as their wide receiver of the future. They wouldn’t have moved up 20 spots in the first round otherwise.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at Williams’ outlook based on ETR’s projections.

JAMESON WILLIAMS

Projection: 35.1 catches on 59.4 targets for 470.9 yards and 3.1 touchdowns. WR59 on Underdog (127th overall).

• We are assuming Williams will play around 10 games as a rookie.
• Albert Breer reported that every team he talked to expected Williams to open the season on the PUP list, knocking him out for at least the first six games of the year.

• That’s a big blow for a rookie wide receiver. Williams should be fine in the long term — the Lions traded up for him knowing he won’t be full throttle to start his rookie campaign — but it puts a significant blemish on his Year 1 outlook. Not only will Williams likely miss the first six games of the season, but he also may not be on the field for OTAs, training camp, preseason games, and everything else that comes with a player’s first NFL offseason. If he starts the year on the PUP list, Williams will play at most 11 games as a rookie, and he’ll likely be eased in once he’s healthy as he acclimates to the NFL. Simply put, it’s hard to imagine him making a major impact right away, even if his immense talent translates to the pros.
• Williams does possess the kind of game-breaking speed that fantasy managers love, so he will be a fun option once his knee is healthy. He may have the highest efficiency ceiling of any rookie wide receiver simply because of his field-stretching ability. 59.4 targets for a player who may play only 10 games is nothing to scoff at, so our ranking of Williams is mostly just because he’s recovering from a major injury and might not be healthy for much of his rookie year.
• Once healthy, Williams will have strong target competition from Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, and D’Andre Swift. If he gets to full health at some point during 2022, he should see a healthy allotment of snaps given the Lions’ uninspiring wide receiver depth chart, but the question is how large of a target share he can carve out with three other viable pass-catching options.
• Jared Goff is also not an ideal fit with Williams’ big-play upside, which could cap his boom-week potential. On the whole, Williams is an okay pick in the double-digit rounds, but there are a lot of reasons to be concerned about his rookie-season viability.

OTHER LIONS PLAYERS

• Williams might not be healthy until late October, at which point he would likely eat into the workloads of D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds. Chark and Reynolds figure to open the season as the outside receivers with ascending star St. Brown manning the slot, but Williams is too talented to keep off the field once he’s up to speed. We knocked Chark and Reynolds in our rankings as a result, and it’s important to keep in mind that Williams will likely be hitting his stride at the end of the season — the weeks that actually matter for best ball tournaments. The decision to trade way up in the first round reflects the Lions’ thoughts on Chark and Reynolds, and both players fell in our rankings with the Alabama speedster in town.