Cooper Kupp just won the triple crown by leading the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Robert Woods was on pace for over 1,000 yards before a torn ACL prematurely ended his season. Enter Odell Beckham, who revitalized his year after a midseason trade and scored seven touchdowns over the final 12 games before he tore his ACL in the Super Bowl. Van Jefferson emerged as a streaky deep threat during his second professional campaign. That’s a pretty good group of wideouts, right?
Not good enough for Les Snead and Sean McVay, as the Rams signed Allen Robinson to a three-year, $45 million contract on Thursday. While Beckham will likely start the year on the PUP list due to his injury, Los Angeles could sport a truly incredible receiving corps at the end of the year if they keep all five of the aforementioned pass catchers. Let’s dig into how ETR’s projections changed as a result of this move.
ALLEN ROBINSON
Old projection: 60.7 catches on 97.4 targets for 730.4 yards and 4.0 touchdowns. WR45 on Underdog.
New projection: 61.8 catches on 97.6 targets for 758.2 yards and 4.5 touchdowns. WR44 on Underdog.
- Robinson had an 18.6% target share with the Bears last year. We had him projected for 19.0% if he returned. With the Rams, we project a 15.3% target share. Los Angeles just has so many viable pass catchers that it’ll be difficult for his target share to approach what it could have been in Chicago. However, the Bears will likely be one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in the league — we currently have them throwing the ball 514 times in 2022, the third fewest in the league. On the other hand, the Rams are one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the NFL. That means Robinson’s raw target total actually increases with the move despite a significant downtick in target share.
- Robinson also projects for better efficiency with Matthew Stafford throwing him the rock instead of Justin Fields. His yards per target average jumps from 7.5 with the Bears to 7.8 with the Rams. His efficiency torpedoed last season, which is slightly alarming considering he turns 29 in August, but his odds of bouncing back efficiency-wise are much better in Los Angeles.
- Despite that, he only moved up one spot in our rankings. That’s because our rankings take in more than just a projection, and we think his probability of attaining a super high target share is lower with the Rams. It wasn’t the most likely outcome, but there was a chance for his target share to return to a WR1 level in Chicago. With the Rams, his ceiling target share is lower with Kupp, Woods, Beckham, Jefferson, and more in the picture.
OTHER RAMS PLAYERS
- Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham were punished most severely. If he re-signs, Beckham should have an important role when he’s healthy, but he’s a candidate to start the year on PUP after tearing his ACL in mid-February. He’s almost certainly out for the first portion of the year, and when he’s back he’ll have to compete for targets with Kupp, Woods (if he’s on the team), Jefferson, and now Robinson (not to mention the running backs and Tyler Higbee). Plus, he’s no lock to be back with the Rams, although Adam Schefter said they still have money left to sign him and hope to do so. Beckham projects as nothing more than a late-round flier for us right now. Jefferson is in a similar boat now that he’s been knocked down to WR4 (WR5 if Beckham returns).
Rams are giving former Bears’ WR Allen Robinson a three-year, $45 million deal that includes $30 million guaranteed, per source.
Rams still have money left over for Odell Beckham Jr. and hope to re-sign him, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 17, 2022
- Kupp, Woods, Higbee, and Sony Michel (who was probably just too high to begin with) also saw a small decline in target share with Robinson’s arrival, but none of them were impacted too greatly. As it stands, we have Robinson and Woods sharing WR2 duties with identical target shares. Schefter noted the Rams started getting calls about Woods after they signed Robinson, so we gave Robinson a little additional upside in case Bobby Trees gets traded.
After signing Allen Robinson today, the Rams begin receiving calls about the availability of WR Robert Woods, who is now a prime trade candidate, per league sources. Woods is coming off a torn ACL, but is expected to be ready by training camp.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 18, 2022
BEARS PLAYERS
- Darnell Mooney is entrenched as the WR1 in Chicago. That was likely the case even with Robinson on the team. The ascending wideout got an extra percent of target share with Robinson gone, but we mostly didn’t bump him too much because he was already at a robust level. The WR2 spot is completely up in the air. However, we have baked in the assumption that they will add another significant contributor, so all Chicago wideouts besides Mooney are currently buried in our rankings despite an open depth chart. That’s also why we didn’t crank Mooney’s target share to the max — it seems certain that they will add a receiver one way or another.
- Cole Kmet has an uninhibited path to strong volume in 2022. The Notre Dame product had a 17.2% target share last season, but he still wasn’t a productive fantasy option due to his inefficiency and the Bears’ low-volume attack. He’s a TE2 on volume alone.
