Fantasy Fallout: Texans Acquire Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs had a strange end to his 2023 campaign, playing 65% of snaps or fewer in three of the Bills’ final four regular-season games. This lack of usage prompted speculation that Diggs was on his way out of Buffalo — and smoke turned to fire on Wednesday morning when the Texans traded a second-round pick for Diggs and a couple of Day 3 picks. The Bills now have Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir atop their WR depth chart to go along with Dalton Kincaid at tight end, while C.J. Stroud now has one of the most dynamic pass-catching trios in the league. Let’s dig into the fantasy implications.

STEFON DIGGS

Old ranking: 18th overall on Underdog

New ranking: 36th overall on Underdog

• Diggs had a weird season. His 7.4 yards per target was his lowest mark since his 2018 season with the Vikings, and his playing time torpedoed near the end of last season. He was still earning targets despite decreased playing time and concluded with a 27.3% seasonal target share, but he topped 48 yards just three times in Buffalo’s final eight regular-season games and totaled 73 receiving yards across two playoff games. It was time for a change of scenery, and he goes from one elite QB to another in an effort to get his mojo back.
• Diggs turns 31 years old in November and now will compete with two fantastic young WRs for targets. If his performance over the second half of 2023 was a reflection of him losing a step, he will quickly find himself as the WR3 for the Texans. If he can regain the form he had over a multi-year stretch for the Bills, he can establish himself as Stroud’s alpha WR1. There’s a wide range of outcomes here depending on what Diggs has left in the tank, but even the WR3 role in Houston is a pretty lucrative one for fantasy purposes. We have Diggs as a fantasy WR2 right now.

NICO COLLINS

Old ranking: 14th overall on Underdog

New ranking: 22nd overall on Underdog

• It’s not a given that Diggs is the WR1 in Houston. Collins was incredible in 2023 with 11.9 yards per target, and he earned a 25% target share or higher in every game he was fully healthy for from Week 11 and beyond (two games where he played limited snaps). He dominated an elite Browns defense in the playoffs and carried Houston in their playoff-clinching Week 18 win over the Colts. He’s also just 25 years old and has been playing with Stroud for a year, whereas Diggs turns 31 during the season and has to acclimate to a new team.
• We have Diggs with a higher base target share than Collins, but the younger Collins is ranked higher for us based on projected efficiency. We also project similar ceilings for both players because Collins could end up out-targeting Diggs if the latter’s age starts catching up to him.

TANK DELL

Old ranking: 26th overall on Underdog

New ranking: 37th overall on Underdog

• Dell suffered a broken fibula in Week 13, but he is reportedly already running full speed and appears on track for OTAs. That will give him plenty of time to get back to 100% before 2024 Week 1, although the Diggs addition presents the possibility that the Texans take things slower with their ascending young wideout. Once he’s on the field, Dell likely ranks third in target share for Houston (he could even lead the team though), but he can still post an upper-teens number in that category and his efficiency could be among the best in the league.
• The former Houston Cougar posted four straight weeks with at least a 22.2% target share before his injury and averaged 9.5 yards per target as a rookie. We have him third among Texans WRs right now, but it shouldn’t surprise anybody if he ends 2024 as their WR1. We still have Dell as a fourth-round pick on Underdog despite the addition of Diggs. It’s worth noting that all three Houston WRs have elite contingent upside; if any of them miss time, the other two can both post WR1 numbers in a condensed passing offense with an elite quarterback.

OTHER TEXANS PLAYERS

• Stroud had the best season from a rookie QB in recent memory and now adds one of the best WRs of the past half-decade to his arsenal. Houston was bafflingly run-heavy in Stroud’s first year, posting a -2.2% Pass Rate Over Expectation, but hopefully Bobby Slowik sees the light and unleashes Stroud, similar to how the Chiefs and Bengals have let their star QB shine with a massive pass rate. Regardless, Stroud is firmly a mid-tier QB1 with unmatched passing upside; his lack of rushing ability may keep him from a true league-winning season barring a historic passing campaign.
• This is a death blow to Noah Brown and John Metchie. Even if one of the top three Houston wideouts gets hurt, the other two (and Dalton Schultz) would likely absorb a lot of those targets rather than Brown/Metchie immediately stepping into a usable role.
• Speaking of Schultz, he’s never been regarded as a high-end talent, so the addition of Diggs is pretty bad news for him. He’ll still be on the field a lot, but his TPRR likely tanks now that he’s competing for looks with three elite receivers.

BILLS PASS CATCHERS

• From Week 9 onward, Kincaid had a 20% target share or higher in six of 11 games. He’ll need to post that kind of target share for the Bills to be effective, and the former first-round pick looks poised to lead Buffalo in targets during his sophomore season.
• Underdog Fantasy’s Hayden Winks noted that Samuel and Shakir combined for eight routes in 2-WR sets last season. Neither has experience handling a WR1 role at the NFL level over an entire season. The Bills gave Samuel a decent contract and Shakir was ridiculously efficient last year. Both of those facts inspire optimism they can post solid numbers in a big role, but, at the end of the day, we haven’t seen it from either. Buffalo almost certainly will add a WR early in the draft, but Samuel and Shakir will have every opportunity to post triple-digit targets if their performance warrants it.

• The Bills had more games with a double-digit negative PROE (two) than a PROE above +1.6% (one) over the second half of last season. They transitioned into a run-heavy offense under Joe Brady, seemingly by design, and that likely continues with their best WR gone. While Kincaid, Shakir, and Samuel will fill big roles when they do throw, this isn’t the same Bills offense we’re used to seeing over the past few years.