Fantasy Fallout: The Jaguars Paid Christian Kirk How Much?

Last April, the Jaguars invested the first overall pick in Trevor Lawrence. The Clemson product was viewed as a generational quarterback prospect, so this was a dream opportunity for Jacksonville. Lawrence’s rookie campaign didn’t go according to plan, but that’s understandable given the chaos happening around him (looking at you, Urban Meyer). Heading into Year 2, the Jaguars appear determined to give their quarterback a fair shot. That means shoring up the offensive line first; they already franchise-tagged Cam Robinson and signed Brandon Scherff in free agency.

Apparently, it also means giving Christian Kirk a four-year, $84-million contract with $72 million guaranteed.

There’s still some uncertainty surrounding the Jacksonville receiving corps — D.J. Chark is presumably on his way out, plus where does Laviska Shenault stand following the signings of Kirk and Zay Jones? So much of this is subject to change, but let’s take a preliminary look at how ETR’s projections changed as a result of this move.

CHRISTIAN KIRK

Old projection: 56.6 catches on 86.7 targets for 718.1 yards and 4.6 touchdowns. WR47 on Underdog.

New projection: 68.4 catches on 106.6 targets for 855.2 yards and 4.6 touchdowns. WR40 on Underdog.

• Because of the capital invested in him, we have Kirk leading the Jaguars in target share at 17.7%, which puts him at 106.6 targets, 19.9 more than he was projected for with the Cardinals. However, the Jaguars have a fairly confusing target tree with four wide receivers — Kirk, Marvin Jones, Zay Jones, and Laviska Shenault — projected for at least an 11.2% target share. Shenault’s future in Jacksonville appears uncertain, but we still have him there for now.
• However, the move from Arizona to Jacksonville does a number on Kirk’s efficiency. Previously, he was projected to average 8.3 yards per target and score a touchdown on 5.3% of his looks. With the Jaguars, those numbers drop to 7.6 and 4.3%, respectively. Lawrence truthers who believe he takes a big step forward efficiency-wise could be higher on Kirk, but any volume increase he sees could easily be negated by decreased efficiency if the second-year signal caller doesn’t improve significantly.
• Based on his contract, Kirk should be fairly involved with his new team, but it’s hard to get too excited about him because of the worse team environment.

OTHER JAGUARS PLAYERS

• The arrivals of Evan Engram and Zay Jones further complicate things. Engram slides into the TE1 spot right away for Jacksonville and is another option in the slot for the Jaguars. The size of Jones’ contract — three years, $30 million — could signal he’s the favorite to line up opposite Marvin Jones at outside receiver.
• Other Jaguars wideouts weren’t affected too heavily on Monday morning when they signed Kirk because we built in the assumption that Chark is gone (i.e. Chark was projected as a Jaguar on Monday morning but isn’t anymore), but they were punished when Jacksonville also signed Zay Jones. Laviska Shenault and Jamal Agnew were hurt the most.
• Jaguars beat writer John Shipley speculated before the Jones signing that Kirk’s addition could display a lack of faith in Shenault. That train of thought was only supported when Jacksonville added another wide receiver later in the first day of the legal tampering period. It could be Kirk and the Joneses at wide receiver for the Jaguars in 2022.

• The signings themselves may be questionable, but the Jaguars are at least attempting to give Lawrence a fair shot to prove himself in 2022. The Jaguars still lack top-end pass-catching talent, but the commitment to improving the aerial attack bodes well for Lawrence’s outlook.

CARDINALS PLAYERS

• Rondale Moore is now the odds-on favorite to take over slot duties for the Cardinals, as Arizona mostly kept him there (73.5% slot rate) last season even when injuries opened up snaps on the outside. Despite that, Moore’s projection didn’t change a lot. We were already projecting a sizable uptick in targets for Moore because of Kirk’s impending free agency and the fact that he now has a year of experience under his belt. There are also reasons to be cautious about the Purdue product, namely that he had the lowest average depth of target in recorded history as a rookie (NFL Next Gen Stats says his average target came 1.1 yards down the field in 2021). Dating back to his college days, the 2021 second-round pick has never been asked to win on intermediate and deep routes, something he’ll need to add to his arsenal to truly break out in Year 2. Still, Moore is dynamite with the ball in his hands and will have every opportunity to increase his role in 2022.

• DeAndre Hopkins‘ target share increased from 19.3% to 21.5% (Chase Edmonds leaving also plays a role here, as Cardinals running backs are now projected for a lower target share on the whole). Hopkins went from WR14 to WR12 in our rankings as a result. The 29-year-old had just a 20.0% target share last season, but we know he’s capable of a true alpha WR1 season. That became a little more likely with Kirk and Edmonds in new places.