After a two-year Carolina tenure, Adam Thielen is back in his hometown Minnesota. The Vikings traded a fourth-round pick and swapped future fifth-rounders in exchange for Thielen and a seventh-rounder, and Thielen will immediately assume WR2 duties with Jordan Addison suspended and Jalen Nailor hurt. Meanwhile, Jalen Coker ascends into a starting role for the Panthers after a fantastic rookie season. Let’s break this deal down from a fantasy standpoint:
ADAM THIELEN
- Thielen was legitimately really good in the 10 games he played in 2024, earning a 19% target share (21.4% over the final four games — getting stronger as the year goes on, unlike in 2023) and averaging 9.9 yards per target. With that being said, he’s now 35 years old, and we saw the impact of a 17-game season on his production during the second half of the 2023 season. That year, he averaged 9.7 targets per game over his first 10 games and only 5.7 over the final seven.
- The good news is that he won’t be relied upon for big volume over the second half of 2025 barring multiple injuries. Once Addison is back, this passing game will flow heavily through Justin Jefferson, Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. We have this move as a net negative for Thielen despite the upgrade in offensive environment simply because he lacks the volume ceiling he had in Carolina (he just had a 19% target share!), but given his age, he’s likely best cast as a role player at this point anyway.
- Thielen is now 35, and he could fall off the age cliff at any point. Once you get to this age in the NFL, it’s a real risk. But to this point, Thielen is still a good NFL WR who could fill a need for Minnesota given their current WR absences. Once everyone is back, he likely settles into a low-volume WR3 role that will likely help the Vikings more than it helps Thielen’s fantasy managers.
XAVIER LEGETTE AND JALEN COKER
- We’ll start with Legette. A first-round pick from South Carolina despite minimal production until his senior season, Legette averaged a paltry 5.9 yards per target as a rookie and struggled with consistency issues. First-round draft capital likely guarantees him at least one more season with an inside track to a big role, but he simply needs to be better in Year 2. On the plus side, his 0.22 target-per-route-run mark led Carolina last year, so he has shown the ability to command targets at an NFL level. If he can convert that volume into efficient playmaking, we’d be cooking, but his inability to do so as a rookie combined with a flimsy college production profile makes that a scary bet. Still, with Thielen gone, he’ll get every opportunity to right the ship in his second pro season.
- Coker has shown more than Legette so far despite entering the league as an undrafted free agent. He averaged a monster 10.4 yards per target last season despite playing in a very poor passing offense, and he had at least a 19.2% target share in four of his last five games. His seasonal TPRR was just 0.17, significantly lower than Legette’s, but he showed the ability to command meaningful target shares near the end of the year, and, just as important, he proved he could be efficient on increased volume. Coker can play both inside and out and likely finds himself as the primary slot with Thielen vacating that role. He might not run as many routes as Legette in Week 1 if the Panthers mostly keep him in the slot, but the consensus is that Coker is the better player, and we could see him emerge as the WR2 here as the season progresses unless Legette turns things around. This trade is huge news for Coker, and we have him ranked slightly ahead of Legette despite projecting Legette for a higher base target share.
OTHER PANTHERS PASS CATCHERS
- We bumped Tetairoa McMillan and Ja’Tavion Sanders slightly as a result of this move, too, and the lower guys like Jimmy Horn Jr. and David Moore also benefit. McMillan is a solid pick in Round 3, while Sanders is a late-round TE2 who deservedly won’t be drafted in most redraft leagues.
OTHER VIKINGS PASS CATCHERS
- Thielen is an upgrade over Jalen Nailor and Lucky Jackson, but really, this shouldn’t affect Jefferson, Addison, or Hockenson much. It is a death blow for the Nailor/Jackson/Tai Felton group that will now have to battle it out for WR4-6 roles.
