Fantasy Impact From Trade Candidates

Last year, I debuted a column that went over the NBA trade landscape to outline how we can adjust as fantasy managers and best ball drafters. It worked out with a lot of correct predictions, so let’s run it back!

One big thing to note here is the differences on Underdog Fantasy. The payoff isn’t nearly as high here with so much money being based on the pre-deadline part of the season, so Underdog drafters should keep that in mind. Additionally, the NBA is going to be enforcing some rules on sitting players for tanking, which also takes away a little value from this article. Still, it’s a good exercise to go over some players in contract years or teams that could be heading in different directions. I do want to note that all of this analysis is baked into my Top 150.

There are a lot of scenarios here, so it’s a bit of a quick hit-style article. Let’s do it!

The Jrue Holiday and James Harden Tier

Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant – Let’s start with the easy part of this. We know that Jrue is now a Celtic, so we can expect massive roles coming to Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, and of course Scoot Henderson.

Switching gears to Jerami Grant, he won’t be eligible to be traded until Jan. 15, but it just makes no sense to keep him, as the Blazers are in the early stages of their rebuild. The Blazers may be looking for young players in return because of Grant signing a five-year deal compared to Jrue’s one remaining. That eventually could lead to extended minutes for Jabari Walker and Kris Murray. On Grant, his role will almost certainly decrease, but at least on a new team he is less likely to get shut down for tanking. It’s kind of pointless to try to guess where Grant could go, but chances are you’re not using enough draft capital on players who could be largely affected negatively.

Fantasy takeaways: It’s wheels up for Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, and Shaedon Sharpe. There could be a path for Jabari Walker or Kris Murray later in the year, as well. I wouldn’t worry too much about a trade affecting Jrue or Jerami too much.

James Harden – You’ve almost certainly heard the comments of Harden calling Daryl Morey a liar. It seems like Harden will take a hard line to not be on the 76ers this year, so there should be some value shifting. On the Harden side, any team trading for James Harden will undoubtedly be opening up a huge role for him. Plus, a new team won’t have a Joel Embiid-sized usage player influencing his shooting volume. In other words, a trade would be a major boost to his value, especially with the massive risk of him missing games while the 76ers try to trade him. He’s a really tough pick to make right now, especially on Underdog with so much value on the pre-break portion of the season. On the Philly side, they’re certainly going to want some high-caliber players coming back to keep Embiid happy. That means there could be a massive role on deck for Tyrese Maxey. De’Anthony Melton and Tobias Harris would also have their values spike. If Harden is held out for a while, that could really bode well for Paul Reed with the 76ers just not having the depth overall. I don’t think it affects Joel Embiid much. 

Fantasy takeaways: It’s really tough to draft Harden in the first two rounds, but it could pay off after that. He’s a really tough target on Underdog, but taking him in the fourth kind of makes sense. Try to get some early-season producers to offset the risk and fade the rookies. I’m being fairly aggressive on Maxey and Reed, while Tobias can be a solid value. We love those Tobias overs when Harden sits.

Very likely to be traded (or waived)

Kevin Porter Jr. – His NBA career is likely over, and we have zeroed him out in our seasonal projections. The Rockets will be getting him out of town, but it’s just a matter of if anyone will take some draft picks to take on his salary before he’s cut. The Rockets picked up a ton of depth, but this really helps Amen Thompson pick up a noteworthy role from Day 1. It should really help Cam Whitmore get minutes, but there was some talk that he could be headed to the G League for some stints. (Note: This was mentioned before the KPJ news.) Jalen Green could also have a really big minutes ceiling, and maybe he can show some improvement in efficiency with more non-scoring stats. We also saw some Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason as a SF/PF combo, so that’s a little more likely now.