Welcome back for the Week 14 edition of the NFL GPP Leverage column. If you missed the Week 1 edition of GPP Leverage, I recommend you take a minute to read the intro from that week to get a feel for the goals of this column.
It’s been a couple of weeks since our last Leverage column, as I took the week off from writing amid the chaos of Thanksgiving and the many DFS slates that coincide with the holidays. Given the break, I think this is a natural time to take a moment to consider where we are at this point in the NFL season and how that matters for DFS purposes. We spent much of the early portion of the season covering specific strategies to gain leverage against our opponents, such as through the use of uncertainty, late swap, teammate pivots, and more. Now, in Week 14, we should be thinking through all of the tools in our toolboxes on a weekly basis to craft the best lineups we can while gaining the leverage needed to win tournaments. Similarly, for much of the early portion of the season, we were still learning about who each NFL team was going to be in 2025. Although we now have a pretty good sense of that by this point in the season, there are still some areas where we can use uncertainty to our advantage, even in Week 14.
The Vegas game totals are quite clustered here on the Week 14 main slate. At the high end, we have Bengals-Bills with a whopping 53.5 total, and on the other end, we have Titans-Browns with a mere 34-point total. Otherwise, the totals for all nine of the other games on the slate fall between 40 and 47.5. This is going to leave Bengals-Bills as the clear game of interest for DFS purposes, and many of the other matchups should provide us with opportunities to play unique game stacks. Given these game-by-game dynamics, this week, we’ll go position by position to consider how we can gain leverage against our opponents on Sunday’s main slate.
QB
- As of this writing, Josh Allen is the only QB we’re expecting to see double-digit ownership, and it’s only projected for the low teens. If ownership continues to be this spread out at QB, you can easily make the case for going in several different directions this week, and I would not worry about ownership when choosing who to start your lineup with.
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