How to Draft From Picks 1-4 in 2023 Fantasy Football

We are roughly one month from the start of the 2023 NFL season. Draft time is upon us — which means every sports website on the planet is starting to post fantasy football draft strategy content. However, there is no one-size-fits-all strategy, as draft philosophy is heavily dependent on what pick you have. Over the next week, we’ll dig into what we think is the optimal strategy based on whether you have an early, middle, or late pick in the first round.

We’ll start with how you should draft if you have 1.01-1.04 in a 12-team league. Let’s get right to it.

ROUND 1 STRATEGY

We have a unanimous top four in our redraft rankings across all formats: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, and Austin Ekeler. Jefferson had the sixth-most single-season receiving yards of all time in his age-23 season and looks poised to run it back this season. The Vikings went from a -2.0% Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2021 to 2.9% last year (sixth in the NFL) in Kevin O’Connell‘s first year at the helm. With Kirk Cousins back and a shaky defense, Minnesota should throw the ball plenty in 2023, which bodes well for Jefferson considering the massive 27.1% target share he posted in 2022. In standard leagues, you could consider taking a running back like McCaffrey with the first overall pick because WRs are relatively devalued in that format, but Jefferson is an easy selection in any form of PPR.

Jefferson’s only competition for the WR1 ranking comes from his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase. The second-year pro followed up a Rookie of the Year campaign with a WR4 finish in half-PPR points per game (16.6). He missed four games in the middle of the year with a hip injury but still topped the 1,000-yard mark in just 12 games. Chase ranked sixth in target share (28.1%) while getting those targets from Joe Burrow — basically the ideal combination for fantasy production. Burrow suffered a calf injury early in training camp, but it’s not expected to cost him any regular-season games. The Burrow-Chase battery looks ready to post gaudy numbers again in 2023, and Chase (along with Jefferson) is one of the few elite WRs from last year who enter the new season with no systemic concerns. McCaffrey or your favorite running back isn’t a crazy choice with the second pick by any means, but few players in fantasy offer the same floor-ceiling combo as Chase, and he’s our preferred option at 1.02.

McCaffrey has been a mainstay near the top of fantasy rankings for years now, and 2023 is no exception. If you ignore his first game with the 49ers in which he played just 29% of snaps after being traded mid-week, McCaffrey led all RBs with 20.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game over the latter half of 2022. His 19.1% target share with Brock Purdy under center (including playoffs) was slightly below his overall target share with San Francisco, but it still would have easily led all RBs last season. Purdy’s recovery from the elbow injury he suffered in the NFC Championship Game is going well and he’s on track for Week 1, which means CMC owners won’t have to worry about Sam Darnold or Trey Lance stymying their first-round pick. McCaffrey did only average 14.7 carries per game after being traded to the Bay Area — and his 46.8% carries share was well below what you’d expect from the third overall pick in fantasy — but that’s largely because S.F. had so many blowouts late last year that they relied more on Elijah Mitchell and the backups to wind down the clock. Plus, the 49ers run so much that McCaffrey can average 15+ carries per game even while ceding some work to Mitchell. If he stays healthy, CMC’s receiving workload is challenged only by Austin Ekeler, and he should see 15+ carries per game in one of the most efficient offenses in the league.

Ekeler is our 1.04 across all formats coming off a season in which he led all RBs in fantasy points and points per game in half PPR and full PPR (Josh Jacobs edged him out in standard leagues). After a brief contract dispute early in the offseason, the relationship between Ekeler and the Chargers appears healthy. Los Angeles fired OC Joe Lombardi and brought in Kellen Moore, who has engineered some of the fastest offenses in the league for the Cowboys over the past few years. LAC is the favorite to lead the league in plays per game this year, which bodes well for all of their fantasy weapons. Ekeler’s 17.4% target share may not be sustainable now that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are healthy and with the addition of first-round WR Quentin Johnston, but he can still flirt with triple-digit targets with a lower target share because of how many pass attempts the Chargers will have. As usual, we expect the Chargers to manage Ekeler’s rushing workload with Joshua Kelley and their other backups during the season, but that hasn’t stopped Ekeler from finishing as the RB1 last year and the RB2 in 2021. There are other options here if you don’t want Ekeler — especially at WR — but we personally are taking the runner here.

Tyreek Hill, Bijan Robinson, Cooper Kupp, and Travis Kelce are also options with a top-four pick. The Dolphins’ passing offense pre-Tua Tagovailoa injury was as explosive as any in the league, and Hill’s 29.4% target share was fourth in the league. Robinson has yet to play an NFL snap, but he’s the best running back prospect in years and boasts a sterling dual-threat prospect profile. Kupp is dealing with a hamstring injury and has massive systemic risk because the Rams look like one of the worst offenses in the league, but his track record over the past two years speaks for itself. Kelce turns 34 in October, but his production at the TE position is unmatched.

Hill and Robinson in particular are very viable, but we have Jefferson, Chase, McCaffrey, and Ekeler as the four best players in our rankings regardless of format. However, we wouldn’t fault anyone for taking someone else, especially at 1.03 or 1.04.

ROUNDS 2 & 3