The first round of fantasy drafts has been thrown into confusion by – you guessed it – the running back position. Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook are working through sticky contract situations.
The truth is that there’s no concrete answer here. We can’t really do this with math, it’s too subjective and there are too many moving parts. For example, last year I thought there was a 5% chance Ezekiel Elliott would miss games due to his holdout. I thought that was enough for me to take David Johnson over Zeke. Of course it wasn’t, as the 95% outcome hit and Zeke was clearly the right play (in hindsight).
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You also need to weigh your own risk tolerance. You take a slight hit in projection by taking Joe Mixon, Michael Thomas or Miles Sanders over the two guys discussed below. But you also gain some safety, and I wouldn’t hate on anyone for that.
So here’s how I personally would handle each situation in season-long right now. For Evan’s take, you can always access his Top 150 here. I also have put the takes of Pat Thorman and Mike Leone and Pat Kerrane at the bottom of this article as I think they are some of the sharpest season-long players around.
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