Dynasty Outlook
March 22
Jaylen Wright is our RB2 for rookie drafts and checks in as RB19 in our overall dynasty ranks. It will be interesting to see where his price lands in rookie drafts given that he is an incredibly attractive athlete in an overall weak group of RBs. He is our 17th rookie in SF/TE premium formats, and shouldn’t be taken in the first round of rookie drafts unless he finds his way onto a team like Dallas, who desperately needs a starter. Wright has never carried a major workload, and he seems likely to be a complementary player at the next level. As the lead back of a committee, we expect him to be a fantasy point producer so long as he comes off the board by the end of Day 2.
Profile Summary
Wright is one of the most explosive backs in this class. While he was not outrageously productive in college, he comes from a program that does not traditionally employ a workhorse back. The efficiency Wright showed in a tough defensive conference was impressive, and it shows how he can create big plays at the NFL level. He was not a pass catcher until his final year, and he was inefficient in that role. It is possible he loses work on third downs to a more reliable receiver.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 20.8
Experience — 3 years
Height — 70.5 inches
Weight — 210 pounds
Hand — 9.38 inches
Arm — 31.5 inches
Forty — 4.38 seconds
Vert — 38 inches
Broad — 134 inches
By the Numbers
Wright burst onto the scene immediately as a true freshman, seeing 85 carries for 409 yards in just nine games. He was splitting RB carries with 2024 prospect Jabari Small and 2023 undrafted rookie Tiyon Evans. QB Hendon Hooker led the team in rushing attempts with 167 (29%).
Evans left the program in 2022, and Wright and Small absorbed most of the work. Wright jumped to 146 carries, and his YPC increased to 5.99. He also scored 10 TDs. This progression continued in his final season, where Wright averaged 7.39 YPC. He also saw a large uptick in receiving usage, catching 22 passes. Wright never broke out, but given that he was a committee player in an offense known for its passing, that is not terribly surprising. In eight seasons as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Josh Heupel has never had a RB even get close to 2.0 adjusted yards per play. Wright’s 2023 season is actually the highest.
Wright shredded the Combine, and it is what makes him intriguing for the draft. Here are all of the Day 1 and Day 2 RBs since 2005 to weigh at least 200 pounds, run a 4.4 or better in the 40, and have a vertical jump of at least 36 inches:
Breece Hall
Jonathan Taylor
Saquon Barkley
David Wilson
Ryan Mathews
Ben Tate
Adrian Peterson
Chris Henry
Joseph Addai
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jerious Norwood
This is a great list loaded with NFL talent. It is clear that Wright’s athletic profile should have him in position to produce for fantasy gamers at the next level.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compared Wright to Melvin Gordon:
Explosive back with good size and breakaway speed. Wright’s running style is more linear than free-flowing, which limits his cut smoothness and elusiveness on the second level. His vision and aggression as an interior runner are just average, but that won’t stop him from putting yards on the stat sheet. He regularly bounced runs wide and beat the pursuit around the corner, so a move to a stretch-based running attack would be a natural fit, allowing his speed to shine. He’s capable of running with power, but he will default into finesse at times. Wright’s big-play potential and talent as a pass catcher should make him a Day 2 target as a future starter.
Maurice Jones-Drew illuminated that Wright models his game after Alvin Kamara:
Wright, who models his game after fellow Tennessee alum Alvin Kamara, is an explosive runner with breakaway speed at the second level. He logged a run of at least 10 yards on more than 25% of his carries in 2023, showcasing prolific big-play ability. With pass-catching talent to pair with his linear running style, Wright has a real chance to one day be an NFL starter.
Dane Brugler noted Wright’s penchant for making explosive plays:
Wright is a good-sized back with the foot quickness and speed bursts that lead to explosive plays (25.7% of his carries in 2023 went for 10+ yards, best in the FBS). However, his pace and patience must improve for more controlled runs. He’s also a work in progress — albeit a promising one — as a blocker and pass catcher.
His run strength, balance, and ability to cut/weave at top speed remind me of Jerome Ford when he came out of Cincinnati.
Draft Projection
Wright is not rated inside of the top 50 prospects on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Wright 84th overall. Neither Jeremiah nor Brugler have Wright in their first-round mocks, as there is not a RB who is expected to be selected on Day 1. Jordan Reid had two RBs in his two-round mock, but neither of them were Wright. It is expected that Wright will be a late second- or third-round pick.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Right out of the gate we can see some recognizable names in Wright’s comp set. Miles Sanders was great for fantasy gamers during his time with the Eagles, and the guy who beat him out for work in Carolina — Chuba Hubbard — also makes the list. Kenneth Walker has been explosive and productive in his first two seasons. Lamar Miller is also someone who returned multiple productive seasons.
Joe McKnight, Justice Hill, Benny Snell, and Alex Collins provide a cautionary tale of what can happen if Wright were to somehow slip into Day 3 of the draft. That lower draft capital does not guarantee you any kind of workload, and it can prevent NFL success. Hill in particular is someone we have seen be successful with his chances, but he is never a back the Ravens fully commit to.
This is a decent list of players given that we were conservative on Wright’s draft position (90) in the model. If he were to be drafted closer to 60th (late second round), we would see D’Andre Swift, Devin Singletary, and Chris Wells added to the comps.
