Dynasty Outlook
March 18
Johnny Wilson is our WR9 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR42 in our overall dynasty ranks. On its face, that would appear to be high considering what the scouts think, but the athletic profile is incredibly tantalizing, as is his performance when paired with other NFL players. His missed field time and lack of raw stats may have him going a bit under the radar. The concern that he may not be an NFL WR is actually not a terrible knock on Wilson from a fantasy perspective. A move to TE may even enhance his value given the overall lack of production at that position (see Darren Waller). Right now, we are advocating to take a swing on Wilson, but we may adjust if the lack of scout interest translates to the NFL Draft.
Profile Summary
Wilson is an extremely polarizing prospect in this class. The scouts don’t seem to have a ton of care for him, and there have even been suggestions that he could move to TE at the next level. But the height/weight/speed profile is fantastic, and he managed to produce when paired with other NFL talents. The reality is that players such as Wilson are so rare that it is difficult to come up with adequate comps or trends. Wilson is a high-upside swing that could absolutely flame out if he proves to just be too big for the position.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 22.8
Experience — 4 years
Height — 78.375 inches
Weight — 231 pounds
Hand — 10 inches
Arm — 35.38 inches
Forty — 4.52 seconds
Vert — 37 inches
Broad — 128 inches
Shuttle — 4.11 seconds
By the Numbers
Wilson started his career at Arizona State, with a true freshman season shortened due to COVID, and just a handful of 2021 appearances. He played in four games as a sophomore with expected Day 2 pick Ricky Pearsall, then a junior. This was their respective stat lines:
Wilson: 12 receptions, 154 yards, 1 TD
Pearsall: 13 receptions, 107 yards, 0 TDs
Wilson then transferred to Florida State and immediately set career highs in catches, yards, and TDs. Keon Coleman transferred in for 2023, but Wilson still handily out-gained him in their 10 games together:
Wilson: 41 receptions, 617 yards, 2 TDs
Coleman: 34 receptions, 452 yards, 8 TDs
The overall lack of TDs is a bit surprising given Wilson’s massive frame, but he out-gained two legitimate Day 2 selections in this draft class.
Wilson is in an obvious massive frame at 231 pounds, but he still displayed some impressive athleticism with a 4.52 40-yard dash and 4.11 short shuttle. Here were the measurements for WRs since 2005 to be at least 225 pounds and score at least 15 PPR points per game in a season:
Mike Evans — 4.53 forty, 4.26 shuttle
Calvin Johnson — 4.38/no shuttle
Andre Johnson — 4.40/no shuttle
Brandon Marshall — 4.54/4.09
Marques Colston — 4.54/4.43
Demaryius Thomas — no testing
A.J. Brown — 4.49/4.29
Vincent Jackson — 4.50/4.04
DK Metcalf — 4.33/4.50
Josh Gordon — no testing
Plaxico Burress — 4.59/no shuttle
Wilson’s athleticism seems quite comparable to Evans, Marshall, Colston, Jackson, and Burress.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compared Wilson to Devin Funchess, and suggests a position change to tight end:
An enormous target with an elite catch radius, Wilson is still in the process of learning to play to his traits. He is fairly physical against press, but plodding feet limit his release quickness and ability to separate out of breaks. He flashes impressive catches here and there but generally fails to impose his frame and strength on defenders, leading to a disappointing contested-catch rate for such a big man. In general, Wilson’s body control and ball skills might not be good enough to stick at wide receiver. He could end up trying to make a team as an F tight end with enough developmental traits to warrant an extended look.
Wilson did not make Daniel Jeremiah’s top 50 prospects, or Dane Brugler’s top 100, so there is no write-up from them. However, it is likely an indictment on Wilson that he was not deemed good enough to write up a report.
Draft Projection
Wilson does not have an expected draft position on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Unfortunately, they only provide data for the top 50 prospects. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Wilson 98th overall. Wilson does not appear in either Jeremiah or Brugler’s first-round mock drafts. Wilson should come off the board somewhere on Day 2.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Wilson’s tremendous size makes it difficult to come up with adequate comps at his draft position. While Michael Thomas is an attractive comparable for any WR, he is only 212 pounds. Mike Williams is similar at just 218 pounds. The big ticket on this list is Brandon Marshall, who also appeared earlier in our baseline athleticism comps. Kelvin Benjamin was another Florida State big guy who saw some early success before eventually flaming out. It is worth noting that Benjamin ran a 4.61 with a 4.39 shuttle, so Wilson is likely a higher caliber of athlete.
The major takeaway here is that the extra-large WRs have had some struggles to be productive. Brandon LaFell and Chase Claypool had small amounts of success, but they were never major NFL pieces. Chris Harper, Limas Sweed, and Miles Boykin never did anything.
