Large-Field GPP Breakdown: RBC Canadian Open

Hello again, ETR subs! We are going “international” this week, as the PGA Tour makes its way to the RBC Canadian Open. I’m sure the players will welcome some 70-80 degree weather instead of the blazing dry heat they just experienced in Texas, and I don’t blame them. The Charles Schwab brought a very fun DFS week, with a virtually unowned Davis Riley winning the tournament over Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa. In my eyes, sharks were rewarded, but there will of course be a lot of debate over how a DFS player should have handled the week. Interestingly enough, we are getting a fairly similar week this week at the RBC Canadian Open, where of course we will talk about how I plan on attacking the tournament. Let’s dive into the Charles Schwab for a moment.

Charles Schwab – Recap 

The biggest question of the DFS week was, of course, what to do with Scottie Scheffler. I advised in my expected chalk section that I was going to LOCK Scheffler, because I did not believe he was priced appropriately given the strength of the field. From a results-based perspective, this turned out to be the right decision, as Scottie finished in second place and was featured in the winning lineup. That being said, we will never be able to truly know if this was the right decision, because last week’s result will always be a singular data point in the many possible outcomes that could have happened. I was asked by an up-and-coming DFS player, Drew Dinkmeyer, to find out the 6/6 % rate for lineups with Scottie Scheffler and without. Because of Scottie’s prohibitive price, was it actually harder for us to make 6/6 lineups with this field? Well, thanks to Discord judge THE Kyle, we have this information for the Sand Trap:

• Lineups with Scheffler had a 6/6 rate of 4.5%.
• Lineups without Scheffler had a 6/6 rate of 7.8%.

So, as expected, it was harder to create a 6/6 lineup with a player priced at $13.3K. Makes sense, right? I was obviously taking a big chance by locking Scottie, and I would probably accept arguments that locking him was not necessarily the best strategy. It also happened to be a week where we got a low-priced, low-owned winner, which is perfect for a Scottie lock. Had the lower-priced players all tanked, Scottie may have finished second and potentially NOT been in the winning lineup. One thing I will point out, however, is that I also noted that I was going to expand my player pool in the lower price ranges to allow myself a wide net of outcomes with Scheffler in the hope of landing on the right one and playing the nuts. All in all, we’ll never know what the actual right move was — but as they say, there are many ways to win in DFS. My path last week was to take the chance on a ton of low-priced players. It happened to work out decently well!

Here are some characteristics of the lineup that won the Drive the Green contest, which is actually a larger field than the Sand Trap: