Last Updated: April 24th at 3:06pm ET
Round 1 was an incredible success for most people who grinded the prop market hard. With just a little line shopping, there were some egregiously bad lines out there in the week leading up to the draft. The highlight was Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be the RB1, which was 20-1 on DraftKings when I wrote this article.
Round 2 is a different beast as we have far less reporting and information on these prospects. Projected ROI on these bets is significantly less than the Round 1 ones. With that in mind, my strategy of embracing variance and knowing that we know very little still stands. I’m mostly looking for longshots.
1. Adam Trautman (+750 MGM), Harrison Bryant (+1200 Fanduel), Albert Okwuebunam (+1400 DraftKings), Devin Asiasi (+10000 DraftKings) first TE drafted
This play is simple and similar to the thought process behind the Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB1 play. While Cole Kmet is likely to be the first TE off the board Friday, his price (around -350) is inflated. I don’t think 78% of teams have Kmet as their TE1. So by shopping for lines across different books, we can find big payoffs on the other three tight ends in play. Asiasi is the absurd longshot who Evan noted had received some “early second-round buzz.” Note that I already had Trautman at +900 and Bryant at +1600, as noted in the previous props article.
2. Jonathan Taylor next RB drafted (+300 DraftKings)
D’Andre Swift is the heavy favorite here at -200 or more. Again, that makes some sense as the NFL is (rightfully) prioritizing pass-catching RBs more now. However, there are plenty of teams who will be enamored with Taylor’s insane Combine measureables and massive production at the college level. If this was 10 (or maybe even 5) years ago, Taylor would have been a top-10 prospect in that version of the NFL.
3. Jalen Hurts draft position under 55.5 (-128 Fanduel)
The success of Lamar Jackson and the NFL’s infatuation with Taysom Hill bodes well for Hurts. While his passing ability is raw, there are plenty of teams with space and need for an upside swing at the quarterback position. The Colts (34), Patriots (37), Panthers (38), Jaguars (42), Bears (43 & 50), Bucs (45), Falcons (47) and Steelers (49) are all in play. Note that Mel Kiper said earlier this week that Hurts would not make it out of Round 2.
4. Grant Delpit (+400 DraftKings) and Jeremy Chinn (+750 Fanduel) first safety drafted
Xavier McKinney somewhat surprisingly slid out of Round 1, suggesting the NFL is lower on him than most analysts. Both Delpit and Chinn had some first-round buzz of their own in the lead-up to the draft, suggesting the gap between them and McKinney is not that wide. If we think this is anywhere close to a flip, getting 4.5- and 7-1 is strong.
5. KJ Hamler (+2600 Fanduel), Chase Claypool (+2000 MGM) and Michael Pittman (+600 MGM) next WR drafted
There is not a lot separating the upcoming tier of wide receivers. Still, Denzel Mims (+150) and Tee Higgins (+150) are leading the market by a wide margin. We know the NFL overvalues raw speed at WR as seen by the Henry Ruggs and John Ross picks in recent drafts. Hamler did not run at the Combine due to a hamstring tweak, but his on-field speed looks sub-4.3. Claypool and Pittman have first-round traits.
