We normally don’t write this article until Week 18. And we will do that as well. However, there are some spots that are worth thinking about for Week 17 this year.
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AFC
1. Bills (12-3)
SITUATION: Must win to maintain No. 1 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Round 1 bye is incredibly valuable. Bills hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.
2. Chiefs (12-3)
SITUATION: Still very live for No. 1 seed.
OUTLOOK: The Bills have a very tough game at Bengals in Week 17, giving the Chiefs a chance to catch them for the bye.
3. Bengals (11-4)
SITUATION: Win out and get the No. 2 seed. Also still live for No. 1 seed.
OUTLOOK: Bengals can’t take their foot off the gas now, too much to play for.
4. Jaguars (7-8)
SITUATION: The Week 18 game against the Titans will determine the AFC South winner.
OUTLOOK: This is a complicated one. Yes, the Jaguars can still get a Wild Card even if they lose to the Titans in Week 18. But they would need a ton of help – the NY Times playoff scenario simulator only gives them a 6% chance of getting that help.
So the question is if the Jaguars think that 6% chance is enough for them to play to win in Week 17. If I was the coach, I would rest my key guys. Not only do you avoid injury risk, but the data is very clear on teams performing better off rest. But we do not yet know what the Jaguars will do.
5. Ravens (10-5)
SITUATION: Have clinched a playoff berth.
OUTLOOK: The Ravens can still win the AFC North and earn playoff home games by winning out. That would include a win over the Bengals in Week 18.
6. Chargers (9-6)
SITUATION: Have clinched a playoff berth.
OUTLOOK: Not a ton to play for here. Chargers will either be the No. 5, 6, or 7 seed. That said, it would be very rare for teams in this spot to rest. Important note: Austin Ekeler appears to bang up his knee late in the MNF win over the Colts. Given the playoff situation, there would be little reason for Ekeler to play at less than 100%.
7. Dolphins (8-7)
SITUATION: Have not clinched a playoff spot yet.
OUTLOOK: Can clinch a playoff spot by winning out. Also could clinch in Week 17 with a win at Patriots plus a Jets loss at Seattle.
THE REST
* Browns, Colts, Texans, Broncos are mathematically eliminated.
* Titans, Patriots, Jets, Raiders, Steelers are mathematically alive.
Note: Derek Carr has been ruled out of the final two games as the Raiders are almost dead for the playoffs. The Raiders do not want to risk injury to a player they could try to trade this offseason.
IMPORTANT
* The Titans have almost no shot of earning a Wild Card berth. All that matters to them is the Week 18 game against the Jaguars. If I was coaching the Titans, I would rest key players (including Derrick Henry) against the Cowboys in Week 17. Note that the Titans have done this before, there is precedent.
Update: Derrick Henry is listed doubtful for Thursday.
NFC
1. Eagles (13-2)
SITUATION: Need one more win to clinch No. 1 seed.
OUTLOOK: Bye is important to the Eagles, who are dealing with injuries to key players such as Jalen Hurts (shoulder) and Lane Johnson (abdominal).
2. Vikings (12-3)
SITUATION: Still live for the No. 1 seed.
OUTLOOK: Eagles must lose out and Vikings win out for earn the coveted Round 1 bye.
3. 49ers (11-4)
SITUATION: Have already clinched NFC West title.
OUTLOOK: The Niners don’t have a ton to play for. The have a very slim shot at the No. 1 seed and can’t fall lower than the No. 3 seed. That said, earning the No. 2 seed will guarantee them two playoff home games.
4. Bucs (7-8)
SITUATION: Have not clinched a playoff spot yet.
OUTLOOK: Can clinch NFC South title with a win over Panthers Sunday.
5. Cowboys (11-4)
SITUATION: Clinched a playoff spot.
OUTLOOK: The Cowboys can’t drop further than the No. 5 seed. They still have an outside chance at winning the NFC East – they need to win out and have the Eagles lose out.
6. Giants (8-6-1)
SITUATION: Have not clinched a playoff spot yet.
OUTLOOK: The Giants will be in the playoffs if they beat the Colts Sunday.
7. Commanders (7-7-1)
SITUATION: Have not clinched a playoff spot.
OUTLOOK: Commanders likely need to win out to get into the postseason.
THE REST
* Bears, Falcons, Rams, Cardinals are mathematically eliminated.
* Lions, Packers, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks are mathematically alive.
