I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I planned to play FanDuel cash again this week. But on Friday it became clear that this was shaping up as a “prove it” slate on DraftKings. By “prove it” I mean there were at least five stone-cold locks and if you didn’t play them, I thought you were playing poorly. In these situations, I love to ramp up my head-to-head volume.
MY MUST PLAYS
* The Commanders are one of the best possible matchups for opposing pass games, as we’ve been discussing all season. They have no pass rush (especially after trading Chase Young + Montez Sweat) and an inept secondary – aka no prayer of slowing down Tyreek Hill. Even at $9600 on DraftKings, we had Tyreek projected as the best salary-adjusted WR on DraftKings by a wide margin. And atop Top Plays. You couldn’t draw up a better spot for the unstoppable Hill.
* The news on Jonathan Taylor’s thumb injury broke after the Week 13 salaries were released. So we had Zack Moss ticketed for 90% or more of the RB touches at just $4600. Given how the Colts have featured RBs in the pass game and at the goal-line under Gardner Minshew, I was never fading Moss. If you didn’t play Moss in cash, you need to reevaluate your process.
* Rachaad White has one of the best RB roles in the NFL. He’s excellent in the pass-game, is the goal-line back, is the 2-minute back, and always plays 75% or more of the snaps. And now he was just $6300 for a home game against a Panthers defense allowing 3.2 touchdowns per game (31st in NFL, only Commanders worse). I wasn’t going to overthink Rachaad here.
* One of the reasons DraftKings pricing has gotten so tight is because of tight end. We rarely get viable tight ends around the $3000 range anymore, let alone at the minimum $2500. So I was never going to pass on a chance to actually play a solid $2500 tight end. Because the floor on (almost) all tight ends is so low and ceilings are muted, we can take risks on salary-savers at the position. With Dalton Schultz (hamstring) out, I expected Brevin Jordan to effectively soak up that entire role. Jordan isn’t very good, but CJ Stroud is a clear talent-maximizer. Note that once Chris Olave (concussion) was ruled in, Jordan at $900 less than Juwan Johnson was a no-brainer for cash.
* Yes, the Eagles are far better against the run than the pass. But Christian McCaffrey is unstoppable, due to his absurdly strong goal-line role and pass-game ability. And on full-PPR DraftKings, he’s typically a priority for me when priced at $9000 in a good game environment. Given the Moss and Brevin Jordan values this week, it was easy to get both CMC and Tyreek Hill. That was not the case on FanDuel.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only considered Brock Purdy ($6100) or Russell Wilson ($5700) at QB. They were the only two QBs in our projections that were a positive value once adjusted for salary. Of course I liked Tua Tagovailoa and CJ Stroud, but they were nearly as expensive as Jalen Hurts ($8200).
I certainly preferred Purdy to Wilson. Whereas Purdy is the point guard for the NFL’s (arguably) most efficient offense, Wilson has been extremely TD-dependent. Purdy also had one of the best matchups for a QB, against the pass-funneling Eagles with a vulnerable secondary.
* I knew I’d have to punt one WR position in order to fit CMC and Tyreek. That was fine since I didn’t really like any mid-range WRs other than Chris Olave ($6900). The punt that easily made the most sense was Elijah Moore ($3500), who already had good chemistry with Joe Flacco from their time together in New York. Moore was also playing in a dome and even at age 38, Flacco looked like a stabilizing presence for the Browns pass game.
* The final 2v2 was Diontae Johnson + Falcons D/ST vs. Josh Downs + Colts D/ST. I certainly preferred Downs to Diontae as the more explosive player in a better game environment. And normally I wouldn’t worry about D/ST, I’d simply take the position player I like better and let the chips fall at defense. But in this case, Diontae’s clean matchup against the Cardinals and the wild ineptitude of Jets OL plus “Tim Boyle” was too much to ignore. I thought it was a coinflip so I went with the projections, which had the Diontae/ATL side 1.9 points ahead.
Week 13 Main Slate Results
The reason I played DraftKings cash this week was because I thought there was one right team. And even if there were some viable options off that team, there were five plays I considered “must.” Anytime that happens, I feel really good about my team.
So I was really happy with the decision to be flexible and switch sites for this week. I’d also note that in the massive $25 single-entry double up on DraftKings, Rachaad White was only 66% owned. Tyreek Hill was 84%, Brevin Jordan 56%, Christian McCaffrey 41%. That’s a high volume of people not playing guys I considered “musts.” Hopefully we’ll run into another slate like this soon!
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 132.7 points, won 51.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 126.34 points, won 63.6% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 166.98 points, won 59.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 169.12 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 107.62 points, won 5.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 140.22 points, won 49.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 124.98 points, won 51.2% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 8: 79.58 points, won 10.3% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 9: 113.88 points, won 56.3% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 10: 92.76 points (original team), won 8.2% of head-to-heads. 131.16 points (late swap), won 100% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 11: 107.96 points, won 31.0% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 12 Thanksgiving: 134.54 points, won 82.8% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 12 Main: 147.90 points, won 79.6% of head-to-heads (FanDuel)
Week 13: 169.36 points, won 95.8% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
