I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a standard Week 18 slate. We had a ton of viable cheap plays with varying levels of role confidence. The problem was at the top – there simply wasn’t a ton of stars on this slate in highly motivated spots.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* As noted in the intro, we were starved for studs. The one in a very good spot with no concerns about playing time was Bijan Robinson. The Falcons had a healthy 24-point team total, were playing in a dome, and Bijan’s pass-catching plus explosive run ability is unique. Even on a normal slate, Bijan would’ve been a very strong play.
* At first glance, I didn’t think Puka Nacua was in play for cash. The Rams are notorious for resting their starters at every opportunity. But once the Seahawks won on Saturday night, the Rams had motivation to secure the 5 seed and a date with the lowly Panthers. The game line shot out to 13.5, and McVay’s quotes were very strong. I thought there was some risk in Puka playing into fourth quarter. But given Davante Adams (hamstring) was out again, and this dream home matchup against the Cardinals, I thought Puka was a lock.
* I normally at least consider a few different options at QB, because their scoring bunches together. But on this slate, we had all the money in the world. And a white-hot, motivated Trevor Lawrence in a very good spot against the pass-funneling Titans. We had T-Law as the best salary-adjusted QB on the slate by a wide margin.
* Darren Waller was placed on IR Friday, leaving the pass-catching tight end role to exclusively Greg Dulcich. On top of that, target hogs Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane were also scratched. Dulcich is a pure pass-catcher, that’s why he’s on the field. Passing on this at $2600 in cash was not a realistic option.
MY WANT PLAYS
* The Vikings D/ST has been one of the best, and most aggressive, in the entire NFL over the second half of the year. Now they got a home game against a Packers team resting all their starters, and using third-stringer Clayton Tune at QB. The only reason Vikings at $3000 weren’t a lock was because the Broncos ($3800) were an excellent play against the Chargers backups.
* One of the last 1v1s I looked at was Ja’Marr Chase vs. Jahmyr Gibbs. Both were playing for dead teams, but I expected both to play their normal roles. We had them roughly dead even in projection. This is one of those true coin-flip spots, and I decided to go with Gibbs simply for using RB as tiebreaker.
* Another 1v1 was at the $4200 spot. Jaylen Wright, Jaydon Blue, and Juwan Johnson were all in play. I was going to play Blue, but then got scared off by the Phil Mafah activation. Wright vs. Juwan was another really close call. Again, when it’s close I try to lean toward RB. The Dolphins have raved about Wright, and gave him 24 carries when De’Von Achane left early a month ago.
* As with most Week 18s, there were a ton of cheap WRs to choose from. I considered Darius Slayton, Jerry Jeudy, Jahan Dotson, Kevin Austin, Darius Cooper, and Dante Pettis for two spots. It made it easy to punt these WR spots since I didn’t like much in the mid-range.
Slayton was my favorite as he had an incredible matchup against Dallas, and very little target competition. Both Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson were out. After that, I was willing to play whatever fit best. In this case, it was Dotson – and I was fine with that given I think Tanner McKee is one of the NFL’s better backups. With AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert and rest of Eagles starters resting, Dotson projected to operate as McKee’s WR1.
Week 18 and Season Results
Darius Slayton got nine targets against the Cowboys inept perimeter defense and ended up with just 9.4 points. I also got the $4200 decision badly wrong as Jaylen Wright blew a goal-line chance and underperformed. Overall though, I think this was a good team for Week 18. The Eagles’ decision to get DeVonta Smith his 1,000 yard was not something I saw coming and hurt Dotson. But other than that, the usage went roughly as expected.
For the season, I had an +11.6% ROI in head-to-heads. That’s my best since the 2019-20 season, when I returned 18.7% for the season. I’m pretty happy with that result, especially since the last month or so was tough. Thanks to everyone who followed along the journey all year!
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 111.32 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 145.40 points, won 76.5% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 168.68 points, won 70.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 5 Draftkings: 192.22 points, won 87.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 153.92 points, won 56.8% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 186.04 points, won 94.9% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 95.48 points, won 11.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 179.04 points, won 86.8% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 189.72 points, won 86.4% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 154.88 points, won 75.7% of head-to-heads
Week 12 DraftKings: 200.28 points, won 77.0% of head-to-heads
Week 13 DraftKings: 82.44 points, won 2.9% of head-to-heads
Week 14 DraftKings: 123.12 points, won 28.0% of head-to-heads
Week 15 DraftKings: 132.8 points, won 47.4% of head-to-heads
Week 16 DraftKings: 115.62 points, won 33.3% of head-to-heads
Week 17 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 18 DraftKings: 115.40 points, won 40.1% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: 114.22 points, won 92.3% of head-to-heads
Week 2 FanDuel: 119.00 points, won 95.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 149.42 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 5 FanDuel: 177.7 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 149.62 points, won 90.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 160.44 points, won 66.7% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 158.18 points, won 100% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 120.2 points, won 42.9% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 137.32 points, won 58.8% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 94.9 points, won 46.7% of head-to-heads
Week 12 FanDuel: 158.56 points, won 52.2% of head-to-heads
Week 13 FanDuel: 122.84 points, won 100% of head-to-heads
Week 14 FanDuel: 153.84 points, won 60.0% of head-to-heads
Week 15 FanDuel: 121.6 points, won 27.0% of head-to-heads
Week 16 FanDuel: 122.88 points, won 45.3% of head-to-heads
Week 17 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 18 FanDuel: Did not play
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
