I play roughly 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
We had too many good plays this week. That was especially true at running back, where injuries to James Conner, Rashaad Penny, Cam Akers, Damien Harris, and Jonathan Taylor left us with a ton of options.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Josh Allen was the only quarterback I seriously considered. The salary cap wasn’t particularly tight, and $8200 is far too cheap for Allen’s floor/ceiling combo anyway. In this huge game at Kansas City, it was also a spot I expected Allen to run more. And the ability of Patrick Mahomes to put points on the board raises Allen’s pass attempt ceiling. The pricing gap down to Tom Brady ($6300) or Geno Smith ($5700) wasn’t nearly enough.
* Thanks to the Ty Montgomery and Damien Harris injuries, Rhamondre Stevenson had the backfield to himself. There were zero signs the Patriots trusted Kevin Harris or Pierre Strong, leading to scenarios where Rhamondre would play 100% of the snaps against the NFL’s worst rush defense in our DvP ratings. At just $6000, this was an impossible spot to pass on.
* The Seahawks defense is dead last in yards per play allowed. The Cardinals were missing James Conner and Darrel Williams. Meanwhile, Eno Benjamin was priced at just $4600 with explosive rushing ability as well as a clear pass-game role. I certainly preferred Eno over Darrell Henderson (timeshare concerns) and Kenneth Walker (pass-game concerns).
* Tyler Lockett had a 25.3% target share through five weeks, and Geno Smith has been playing quarterback at a top-5 level. The Seahawks were in one of the better game environments and spots of the week, home against the Cardinals. I’m not really sure how DraftKings made Lockett cheaper after he was a must in Week 5, but they left him at $5600.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I looked at lineups that led with Ja’Marr Chase. It was certainly a great spot for him – the Saints have an elite rush defense, and Marshon Lattimore was out. But once Tee Higgins (ankle) was ruled in, I decided I preferred Stef Diggs.
A lot of times in cash, I’ll take my expensive pass game exposure through the QB and be done with it. After all, tying up $16,600 in a QB-WR duo has some obvious concerns. But given the spot and game environment for Allen-Diggs here, I felt really good about it. We had Diggs for 10.8 targets, 1.1 more than Chase and in a better projected game environment.
* Tight end was one of the slate’s biggest decision points. I did not have much desire to play a $4600 Tyler Higbee in a likely sluggish game. That meant either paying up for Mark Andrews at $7000 or going with a low-ceiling punt.
Although Stef Diggs was $1400 more than Andrews, I preferred Diggs. And there were no builds I could find that played both. So that left me punting at tight end and saving the $3500+ that comes with that. I thought there were plenty of reasonable options: Zach Gentry playing the Pat Freiermuth role. Hunter Henry with Jonnu Smith (ankle) in doubt. Irv Smith at just $3200, Hayden Hurst, Dawson Knox in a good game environment, Robert Tonyan.
In the end, I couldn’t pull the trigger on Henry once Jonnu was deemed active. And I thought Hurst’s role was solid, with upside for more if Tee Higgins (ankle) was limited. Note that I would have been fine going down to Gentry if that $700 got me something I wanted.
* The other big decision was Alvin Kamara vs. Kenneth Walker. The final 3v3 I looked at was Walker, Chris Godwin, and Carolina D vs. Kamara, Rondale Moore, Jaguars D.
I had the Walker/Godwin side in for much of Sunday. In the end, I was a bit queasy on Godwin’s Week 5 usage (only ran a route on 51% of Tom Brady dropbacks) and on Walker’s pass-game role (I expected DeeJay Dallas to be the primary back in passing situations).
Meanwhile, Kamara’s three-down plus goal-line role is truly elite and he was significantly underpriced as well – just $6700. And Rondale Moore’s every-down slot role had a really good floor.
I really didn’t like spending up at D/ST for a Jaguars unit I didn’t love, but I didn’t have anything to do with the $600. And I did think Jaguars were a better raw play than Panthers, despite all of the Rams offensive line woes.
Week 6 Results
Obviously I’m not thrilled about coming out a small loser this week. But I’m mostly happy with my decisions. For just $1300 more on a loose slate, I think Alvin Kamara was significantly better than Kenneth Walker. I think avoiding Darrell Henderson as part of a 3-man backfield was right. I think skipping over that Christian Kirk/Chris Godwin tier at WR was right as well. I think avoiding two Seahawks receivers (DK Metcalf and Lockett) together was correct.
Mark Andrews’ final catch of the game gave him the 100-yard bonus and it went for a touchdown. That was max pain.
But really the loss came down to the 3v3 I described above. Walker outscored Kamara by 0.6, Godwin outscored Rondale by 4.6, and the Panthers D got a TD to outscore Jags D by 10.
I’ve run like the sun on these close 2v2s and 3v3s all year, so I’m not in any position to complain. Live to fight another day.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 172.02 points, won 80.7% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 127.28 points, won 65.8% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 139.86 points, won 96.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 171.52 points, won 89.5% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 184.36 points, won 62.1% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 135.86 points, won 51.6% of head-to-heads
