I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
Last week was extremely straightforward in cash, a real “prove it” week. This Week 6 slate was the exact opposite, as there were a ton of different ways to build.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Whenever Puka Nacua is healthy, around $8000, and Matthew Stafford is healthy… I want to be playing him. There aren’t many wide receivers I’d make such blanket statements about, but Puka’s role while playing with the greatest WR Kingmaker of all time is a special situation. It certainly didn’t hurt that Nacua was home against the Cardinals.
MY WANT PLAYS
* The “correct” quarterback play by the math was probably Matthew Stafford. But I didn’t love making that play for a few reasons.
First, I loved the expensive skill players on this slate: Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, Puka Nacua, Drake London were some of the best plays on the slate. I wanted to prioritize them instead of quarterback, where scores cluster together tighter than other positions.
Second, Stafford is a pure pocket passer at $6400. His opportunity is going to be very similar to other QBs, especially cheap ones. The bet is simply that he throws for more touchdowns, and has access to the 300-yard bonus that other cheap QBs don’t.
And lastly, I knew I was playing Puka Nacua. And probably playing Kyren Williams. I was already covering a good Stafford game.
I liked Josh Allen a lot more than Stafford, but did not want to spend $7500 on quarterback on this slate context. And in order to fit Drake London, I needed to go all the way down to stone minimum $4000 for Tanner McKee.
Of course I didn’t think McKee would perform great, but I given the Eagles RB situation (on 4th-string RB) and pass-catcher situation (DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert healthy), I thought I’d get 30+ dropbacks.
* Bijan Robinson didn’t hit any of our optimals (can add-on Solver Optimizer via this link). Our optimals included a lot of mid-range RB with Kyren Williams, Braelon Allen, and Chuba Hubbard. However, I really wanted to get up to Bijan here at $8700. This was a very good spot, home against a bad and injured Bears defense in a potential shootout. Bijan’s pass-catching plus elite rushing role was underpriced, even at $8700.
* I didn’t feel that great about Kyren Williams. The Rams have been in a ton of tight and big games lately, and that’s where I expect Kyren to separate more from Blake Corum. As a 13.5-point home favorite, I expected to see far more Corum here. But that’s how we had it projected, and we still had Kyren as a strong value. The Rams projected to simply be in a ton of scoring opportunities in this spot.
* Tyler Warren (groin) was a surprise late scratch. He would be replaced by tight ends who were poor target earners. That opened up more for Keenan Allen at just $4300 in a dream matchup in the dome against the Titans. Allen is a professional target earner, and had a really nice floor here with Warren out.
* Before the Tyler Warren news, I had Xavier Worthy, Chuba Hubbard and Panthers D/ST. I really wanted to get Drake London at $7000 in this dream matchup though, so I went to London, Keenan Allen, and Jets D/ST. London’s splits with Michael Penix were just too much for me to ignore at $7000. I wasn’t going to sweat the D/ST decision when it came to getting London into the lineup.
* Germie Bernard was my favorite of the cheap WRs. No Michael Pittman, no Roman Wilson, and Pat Freiermuth was a late add to the injury report. Bernard had already earned his way into Aaron Rodgers’ trust circle, and was a good prospect coming out of Alabama.
* I could’ve made a case that Isaiah Likely was a “must.” He came into this game as fantasy’s No. 1 tight end on the back of not only elite production, but also elite usage. He was facing an inept Saints defense with chucker Jameis Winston at QB. If Likely was a WR, he would’ve been priced around $6000 – getting him at $4800 was a steal. However, I wouldn’t call him a must due to slate context.
Week 6 Results
The Tanner McKee play ended up working out fine as neither of Matthew Stafford or Josh Allen performed great. I also picked up a ton of points on people who faded tight end thanks to Isaiah Likely. And I got really strong games from both Keenan Allen and Germie Bernard. However, when Bijan Robinson and Drake London combine for 19.5 points in a home game against the Bears, it’s going to be tough to win. Regardless, I’m happy with my decision to play outside the box a bit, even if it meant giving up a few points of projection. Sometimes I have to go with my gut.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 159.94 points, won 82.2% of head-to-heads
Week 2 Draftkings: 154.76 points, won 81.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 163.30 points, won 73.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: 104.38 points, won 41.1% of head-to-heads
Week 5 DraftKings: 158.96 points, won 79.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 125.60 points, won 48.5% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play due to site functionality
Week 2 FanDuel: 125.86 points, won 66.7% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 140.36 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: 137.68 points, won 78.9% of head-to-heads
Week 5 FanDuel: 151.16 points, won 92.3% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 112.08 points, won 87.5% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
