I generally consider myself more of a structural-focused drafter rather than someone who has exceptionally strong player takes. This stems from reading RotoViz’s Blair Andrews’ article about how there are two ways to beat ADP: You can either pick the right players better than everyone else, or you can find the types of players that the market tends to undervalue. Blair’s research indicates it’s fairly difficult to do the first, so I have mostly relied on the second, identifying groups like the “running back dead zone” that the market has historically misvalued. I also think I respect the market’s opinion more than many fantasy drafters, a concept I became even more committed to after doing some research two years ago, and that opinion was enhanced by Michael Leone’s research on how ADP value impacts winning in best ball.
In short, I try not to get too entrenched in my player takes, as I (along with everyone else who plays fantasy football) am going to be wrong a lot. With that being said: It’s impossible to draft and work on every decimal point involved in the ETR season-long projections all summer long and not come away with a few strong player-based opinions. Today, I’ll go over eight players I have not been drafting in fantasy leagues all offseason. Tomorrow, we’ll flip the script and detail the players I have been targeting.
MIKE EVANS
Evans has posted an NFL-record 10 straight seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards to start his career, so it’s a little bit of a scary fade, but there are too many red flags to ignore. First, Evans will be 31 years old by the time the season kicks off, so Father Time catching up is a real concern. But even more than that, the Buccaneers lost star OC Dave Canales — who took the Carolina head coaching job — who had previously guided Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield to career resurgences. Mayfield is coming off perhaps the best season of his career but seems likely to regress toward his career averages. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have been talking up Chris Godwin all offseason, saying he’s going to own the slot WR role that made Cooper Kupp so incredible during new Bucs OC Liam Coen‘s time in Los Angeles. I’d much rather wait 3+ rounds and take Godwin instead of spending up for an aging Evans.
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