Each week in this space, we’ll look at how ADP has changed over the past week in the industry. We’re looking at ADP over the last seven days compared to ADP the previous 8-14 days.
*Visuals provided by Sam Hoppen.
FFPC FBG ADP Change
NFFC OC ADP Change
Underdog ADP Change
This week’s risers
1. Corey Davis is the top riser inside the Top 100 on UD (up to 95.8 from 105.3) and rising outside of the Top 100 on FFPC (113.0 from 123.1) and NFFC (100.3 from 115.5). Davis has been heavily targeted this preseason on limited routes. We have him ranked basically right at his new ADP.
2. Logan Thomas is rising across the industry (up to 64.7 from 70.7 on FFPC, 93.3 from 101.9 on NFFC, 95.1 from 104.1 UD). Evan Silva tweeted about Thomas last night, and he was also discussed during the ETR TE preview show.
3. Preseason hype is rich around K.J. Hamler, who is the highest riser outside of the Top 100 on both UD (169.5 from 196.7) and NFFC (205.8 from undrafted), while still cracking the list on FFPC (235.5 from undrafted). We’ve been ahead of the market on Hamler, who Justin Herzig identified as one of his highest-exposure WRs in best ball back in July. We have Hamler as a fair value at current ADP.
4. Philip Lindsay looked like the HOU starting RB in preseason action, which resulted in ADP rises on FFPC (127.5 from 143) and UD (150 from 174). Truthfully, the ship has likely sailed here to get Lindsay at a discount. While we bumped Lindsay up in the rankings on the expectation of more carries, his high-value touches could remain low between a bad offense, David Johnson taking pass-down work, and Mark Ingram taking red-zone work.
5. Rhamondre Stevenson is another heavy riser we’re out on at his new ADP. Stevenson broke off a huge TD run at the end of the team’s first preseason game, which is having an outsized impact on his ADP. The Patriots sound like they’re not going to thrust the rookie into meaningful action early, leaving us with better RB bets in the early to mid double-digit rounds (up to 166.4 from 189.0 on NFFC, 171.9. from 208.4 FFPC).
This week’s fallers
1. Myles Gaskin is among the top fallers across the industry (down to 68.8 from 61.1 FFPC, 78.3 from 65.2 NFFC, 72.7 from 65.2 UD). I talked about not panicking on Myles Gaskin but being very careful when drafting “Dead Zone” RBs this past week. It looks like the market mixed in some smart decision-making with some panicking to create a buying opportunity on Gaskin. After ceding some work to Malcolm Brown in the first preseason game, it was the Gaskin Show in Week 2 — highlighting usage in all three areas with the starters: between-the-20s carries, pass-catching opportunities, goal-line TD.
2. With Zach Ertz still on the Eagles, the market is getting scared on Dallas Goedert (down to 109.2 from 99 on UD, 105.2 from 98.6 NFFC, 84.6 from 80.8 FFPC). We’ve slightly shifted some target share from Goedert to Ertz, resulting in a small dip in our Goedert ranking, which has been at TE10 for most of the offseason (below market). Even with the dipped ADP, he’s going as TE9 or 10 most places.
3. David Johnson is one of the biggest fallers outside of the Top 100 in ADP across the industry (136.4 from 120.9 FFPC, 135.4 from 116.9 NFFC, 169.4 from 141.4 UD), and we agree with the market’s reaction here. There was some appeal to DJ if he entered as the clear starter, but it looks like he’s going to lose a lot of rush work to Lindsay and Ingram. This is not a good situation given the decline phase of his career meeting workload competition on a bad offense.
What I’m watching now
Ja’Marr Chase has started to fall a little bit on NFFC and FFPC. I suspect we see that dip continue as the combination of preseason struggles and him taking a year off has started to form a negative narrative. We’re still bullish on Chase and think it makes sense to view this as a buying opportunity, especially if he starts to fall out of the fourth/early fifth and into the late fifth/sixth round.
