Herzig’s Best Ball Portfolio

Editor’s Note: Don’t have our Draft Kit yet? It is just $35 and includes Silva’s Top 150, Silva’s Team Previews, Silva’s Tiers, Rankings for every format and tons more. Click here for details.

Editor’s Note 2: Underdog Fantasy is offering ALL ETR subscribers an unbeatable deal! Anyone who purchases the ETR Draft Kit will receive a $10 site credit. First-time Underdog customers will receive an additional $25, making our Draft Kit nearly free if you haven’t tried Underdog yet!  After purchasing our Draft Kit, follow the instructions here to claim your reward.

At the time of this writing, I have drafted 75 BBM teams – halfway to maxing out the 150. While I have focused my articles predominantly on strategy, I understand people also want to see how I am actually drafting. Thus, this article gives a peak into my BBM portfolio. You can see what roster constructions I’ve been drafting, which players I am highest and lowest on, as well as which teams I’ve been attacking. It is a very scary thing to share this with the world and makes me quite vulnerable (i.e., you all get to see my gross 9% Josh Jacobs ownership), but I believe this process will help me improve and hopefully you all will as well.

Roster Construction

2-5-9-2	24%
2-4-9-3	24%
3-4-9-2	21%
2-4-10-2	12%
2-5-8-3	5%
3-5-8-2	4%
3-4-8-3	4%
2-6-8-2	3%
2-3-11-2	1%
3-5-7-3	1%

The above roster constructions are in the format of QB – RB – WR – TE. I have grown fond of the 2-5-9-2 construction as I think there is opportunity to find value near the end of the draft with RBs. Those teams usually comprise of one or two early RBs, and then three RBs in the 11th or later. Worth noting though that despite my T-1 highest-owned construction having five RBs, 61% of my teams have exactly four RBs as that is still the construction I’m targeting.

Takeaways:

• My two-QB to three-QB ratio is 69% / 31%
• 61% of my teams have exactly four RBs
• 83% of my teams have at least nine WRs
• My two-TE to three-TE ratio is 65% / 35%

Quarterbacks

Name	Pos	Team	%
Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	17%
Kirk Cousins	QB	MIN	15%
Baker Mayfield	QB	CLE	15%
Tom Brady	QB	TB	12%
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	12%
Zach Wilson	QB	NYJ	12%
Justin Fields	QB	CHI	11%
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	11%
Sam Darnold	QB	CAR	11%
Trey Lance	QB	SF	9%
Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	9%
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	9%
Daniel Jones	QB	NYG	8%
Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	8%
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	7%
Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	7%
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	5%
Carson Wentz	QB	IND	5%
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	5%
Derek Carr	QB	LV	5%
Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	5%
Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	WAS	5%
Jameis Winston	QB	NO	5%
Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	4%
Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	4%
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	4%
Jared Goff	QB	DET	3%
Taysom Hill	QB	NO	3%
Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	3%
Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	1%

Upon looking at this, I was a bit surprised to see which QBs I have the highest ownership of in my portfolio. My top guys are relatively immobile QBs and go against my strategy of trying to draft QBs with rushing upside. I’ve tried to dig a bit deeper into this and came up with a few conclusions.

1. I’ve been predominantly getting these guys substantially past their ADP, including as much as nine spots past ADP for Tom Brady. I’m also personally higher than market on Matt Ryan because I think people are overweighting the loss of Julio and not accounting for the lack of run game. This team is going to be in shootouts and throwing a ton.
2. Stack partners. Thielen, Godwin, and Jarvis are three of my highest-owned WRs (23%, 20%, and 19% respectively), and each of those have the QB drafted after the WR which makes for an easier stack. I also have 19% Kareem Hunt which increases my willingness to draft Baker.
3. It’s easier to get ADP value with QBs once you own their stack partners than first owning the QB and trying to get ADP value with their receivers. Because of this, I think I’ve been more likely to value hunt and that’s where these non-rushing QBs fall to me.
4. I am probably going to be trying to correct this a bit in my next 75 drafts and grab more of the QBs with rushing upside.

Running backs