NBA Matchups: December 13

Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers

Team Totals: Heat 101.3, Cavs 106.8

Injury Report: Jimmy Butler (O, tailbone), Caleb Martin (O, protocols), Markieff Morris (O, whiplash)

Heat projected starters: Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, P.J. Tucker, Dewayne Dedmon (Note: Not confident at all on this prediction, explain below)

Cavs projected starters: Darius Garland, Isaac Okoro, Lauri Markkanen, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen

Spoesltra quotes: Said Lowry really set the table for the offense, said “who’s the five?” when KZ Okpala and Tucker are out there together, said P.J. Tucker is always a step ahead on reading offenses, said Duncan has been playing well besides the earlier slump and he “only gets evaluated by the threes,” said his whole team is vaccinated and they all got their boosters.

Bickerstaff quotes: Said Darius Garland makes the defense pay for whatever coverage is thrown at him and he’s “one step ahead of their coverages,” said Okoro is growing more as a transition scorer and his teammates are looking for him more, said Rubio continues to play fearlessly.

Stats and Notes: 

*This is certainly going to be a slow game and everyone knows the Cavs have been locked in as a defense. Since Thanksgiving, the Cavs have the league’s best defense at a ridiculous 99.4 D rating, including a top-ranked 84.5 rating in the halfcourt. Miami’s defense isn’t exactly locked in since Bam went down, and the Cavs will have plenty of size out there against some funky (and likely smaller) Miami lineups.

*So that Miami fifth starter is extremely tough to predict. They probably can’t go so small with Gabe Vincent against the giant Cavs, and Spo never really plays Duncan and Strus together. Spo likes his KZ/P.J. PF/C combo when staggered away from Dedmon, so I think KZ is coming off the bench. If he did start, he’d be looking at a massive minutes ceiling. It feels like Herro is more comfortable in that bench role, too. If KZ starts, you can probably fire him up as a punt play. It makes the most sense to me to go with Strus and get as much spacing as you can.

*Kyle Lowry’s role is just so good right now. In his last two games, he has 19.0 potential assists per game, 96.5 touches (51.5 frontcourt touches), and he just had a season-high 30.7 usage rate against the Bucks on Dec. 8. The Cavs are likely going to throw Isaac Okoro on him, which isn’t a bad thing.

*Well, the Cavs have said they want to punish teams when Evan Mobley has a smaller guy on him. As tough as P.J. Tucker is, he’s only 6’5” and he’s likely going to have to guard 6’11” Mobley.  This game should be close and the Cavs likely want it bad, so Mobley’s minutes could be way up there in a sneaky good matchup.

*Jarrett Allen finally got to the line a decent amount on Saturday with a season-high 10 FTAs. It’s somewhat surprising it took so long for him to hit double digits at the charity stripe after having such a high foul-drawn rate last year. Love it. Plus, this matchup is a good one against an older Dedmon, and he’ll have a handful of minutes against either Omer Yurtseven or the KZ/P.J. frontcourt. He could smash. On the flip side, I’d be a little nervous using Dedmon despite how he should get some minutes.

*Miami is going to allow a lot of 3-pointers, which does set up Darius Garland for a big spot. His usage continues to be higher and he’s so good these days that he can likely crack the Miami zone with extra drives.

Golden State Warriors (front end) at Indiana Pacers