I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving, and there’s more to be thankful for today. It’s the last day of the NBA Cup Group Stage! Let’s get to incentives.
In the Eastern Conference, there are two huge games to decide the groups. Most of it has to do with the Magic at Pistons. The winner of this game wins the group, and the other teams vying for a wild card will be rooting for the Magic with their +61 point differential and 3-0 record. Teams are unlikely to catch Orlando, and Detroit losing would knock them out with a 2-2 record.
The Knicks vs. Bucks will be big for both teams, especially the Knicks, who will win the group with a win (tiebreaker over Miami). The Bucks can’t win the group (tiebreak with Miami), but their +13 could play if Orlando beats Detroit (Cavs also their competition, that’s next).
The Cavs are highly incentivized to run it up with a +33 point differential. They are the only team that has a chance to advance and has no chance to win their group (Toronto clinched). They may have to catch Miami’s +49 unless Miami wins the group (this means NYK wins).
In the Western Conference, there are two big games to decide Group A and Group C. The Suns at Thunder will face each other to win the group and have home-court advantage in the first round. The Thunder are basically a lock to advance at +71, so the viable wild-card teams will be rooting for OKC to win in a blowout (Suns +35).
The Nuggets and Spurs have a winner-take-all game for Group C. The loser cannot advance at 2-2. Easy one.
The Grizzlies are really the only other team with a chance to catch the Suns for the wild card (assuming an OKC win). They’re +9 in point differential, so they would need a huge win against the Clippers while the Suns get blown out.
The Lakers won their group and will have home-court advantage next round unless they lose and their margin of defeat is more than 10 (Nuggets) or 13 (Spurs) compared to the winner of Group C. They play the Mavs, so it shouldn’t be a problem.
The Clippers technically have a chance to advance, but they’d have to win by the combined age of their rotation (kidding, but it’s a lot).
CLE @ ATL | PHI @ BKN | CHI @ CHA | ORL @ DET | WAS @ IND | MIL @ NYK | PHX @ OKC | SAS @ DEN | SAC @ UTA | DAL @ LAL | MEM @ LAC
Big incentive to win and score doesn’t matter with a win: Thunder, Pistons, Magic, Spurs, Nuggets, Knicks, Suns (their deficit margin matters)
Incentive to win and they need to run it up: Bucks, Cavs, Grizzlies
Small incentive to win or keep it close: Lakers
No extra incentive: Hawks, 76ers, Nets, Bulls, Hornets, Wizards, Pacers, Kings, Jazz, Mavs, Clippers
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks
Team Totals: Cavs 121.5, Hawks 115
Injury Report: Jarrett Allen (P, finger), Craig Porter Jr. (Q, hamstring), Dean Wade (Q, knee), Caleb Houstan (Q, G League)
Cavs projected starters: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, De’Andre Hunter, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Hawks projected starters: Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis
Atkinson quotes: Said they competed on Monday despite being so short-handed, said they couldn’t slow down BI, said he played a deeper rotation on Monday because “we needed fresh legs,” said there were 5-6 threes that he didn’t like, said he can’t take Tomlin off the floor and he’s “pinching himself… because he really belongs,” said Mobley “didn’t have the juice” on Monday because of so many minutes, said he would likely get Nance at the 5 more (said he’s playing him a lot at the 4), said Nance is “catching a bit of flow.”
Snyder quotes: Nothing on the blowout vs. Wizards.
Stats and Notes:
*As mentioned above, the Cavs could really try to run this one up. These teams faced off earlier with a 117-109 Cleveland win and similar personnel (no Trae Young, no Jarrett Allen/Darius Garland). The Cavs have been quite strong with their defense at eighth in the league (11th in the halfcourt). The Cavs are still first in the NBA in limiting PNR handler points, and they’re above average at limiting C&S. Their rim defense has been a little worse since Allen went down, so that could help guys like Jalen Johnson. For the Hawks, they are really struggling on the boards lately, with teams getting 32.7% of ORBs in the halfcourt (second-highest mark). The Hawks have been much better on the ball this year, and they’re elite in limiting transition at fourth in points against them. They’re really getting beaten inside, even with Kristaps Porzingis out there, so the frontcourt guys will have to carry a heavy load for the Cavs.
Great matchups: Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley
Good matchups: Zaccharie Risacher, Donovan Mitchell
Bad matchups: Jalen Johnson
Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets (front end)
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